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数据分析与知识发现  0, Vol. Issue (): 1-     https://doi.org/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467. 2020.0325
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构建国家经济大脑的实践探索与初步设想
王建冬,于施洋
国家信息中心大数据发展部 北京  100045
Practical Exploration and Preliminary Assumption of Constructing National Economic Brain
Wang Jiandong,Yu Shiyang
Big Data Development Department, State Information Center, Beijing, 100045
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摘要 

【目的】构建国家经济大脑,运用大数据手段支撑宏观经济监测预测。【应用背景】国内外已有大量实践,国家发改委大数据中心正在积极尝试构建形成战略、政策、项目、企业、自然人五类本体构建规则。【方法】坚持均衡与演化路径相统一,引入批判实在论分析视角,整合复杂网络、自然语言理解和时空分析等算法模型,形成宏中微观一体化分析体系。【结果】微观层面,整合打通政府和社会数据,构建动态本体库,实现以企业社会信用代码为主线统一关联全国3000万家企业和5000万家个体工商户的78大类、1828个指标项;中观层面,基于复杂系统突现的三个依赖性,构建仿真分析平台;宏观层面,围绕监测经济动力(投资、消费、贸易)、产业运行和区域发展三方面,提出实践应用较成熟的15种大数据监测指数,构建传统预测与复杂性预测、行为预测和时空预测等新方法相结合的预测平台,强化风险识别。【结论】构建微观动态本体、中观仿真分析和宏观监测预测的统一框架,能够有效解决宏微观经济学脱节的理论困境,促进提升宏观决策科学性。

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关键词 大数据  经济监测预测  国家经济大脑     
Abstract

[Objective] Build National Economic Brain and use big data to support macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting. [Context]] There have been a lot of practices at home and abroad. The National Development and Reform Commission's Big Data Center has constructed a Strategy, policy, project, enterprise, natural person ontology construction rules system. [Methods] This paper insists on the unification of equilibrium path and evolution path, introduces the perspective of critical realism analysis, integrates complex network, natural language processing and spatio-temporal analysis algorithm models to form a macro-meso-micro integration analysis system. [Results] At the micro level, government and social data has been integrated to build a dynamic ontology library, achieving a unified association of 30 million enterprises and 50 million individual industrial business across the country, covering 78 categories and 1828 indicators, with corporate social credit codes as the main line. At the meso level, we should build a simulation analysis platform based on the three dependencies of complex systems emergence. At the macro level, this paper focuses on monitoring economic power (investment, consumption, trade), industrial operation and regional development, and puts forward 15 big data monitoring indexes that are relatively mature in practice and application, combines traditional prediction, complexity prediction, behavior prediction and space-time prediction, strengthen risk identification.[Conclusions] Constructing a unified framework of microscopic dynamic ontology, mesoscopic simulation analysis, and macroscopic monitoring and forecasting system can effectively solve the theoretical dilemma of macro-microeconomics disconnection, and promote the scientificity of macroeconomic decision-making.

Key words Big Data      Economic Monitoring and Forecasting       National Economic Brain
     出版日期: 2020-06-22
ZTFLH:  TP391  
引用本文:   
王建冬, 于施洋. 构建国家经济大脑的实践探索与初步设想 [J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 0, (): 1-.
Wang Jiandong, Yu Shiyang. Practical Exploration and Preliminary Assumption of Constructing National Economic Brain . Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 0, (): 1-.
链接本文:  
http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467. 2020.0325      或      http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/Y0/V/I/1
[1] 王建冬,于施洋. 构建国家经济大脑的实践探索与初步设想 *[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2020, 4(7): 2-17.
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