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数据分析与知识发现  2017, Vol. 1 Issue (5): 52-61     https://doi.org/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2017.05.07
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国城镇居民信息消费的空间相关性与影响因素分析*——基于动态空间杜宾面板模型的实证研究
张肃()
(同济大学经济与管理学院 上海 200092)
(中原工学院经济管理学院 郑州 450007)
Information Consumption of Urban Chinese Residents: An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model
Zhang Su()
(School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)
(School of Economics and Management, Zhongyuan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450007, China)
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摘要 

目的】信息消费已成为日益增长的消费热点, 为了促进城镇居民的信息消费水平, 对其影响因素进行研究。【方法】分析中国城镇居民信息消费的发展状况及空间相关性, 以及当期信息消费会受到的三种内、外部影响, 构建相应的理论模型, 进一步基于动态空间杜宾模型进行实证研究。【结果】当期信息消费支出对相邻地区并没有产生空间溢出效应, 信息消费表现出耐用性特征, 而居民信息消费会受相邻地区居民信息消费习惯的影响; 影响因素中物价和收入的提升, 短期内会促使本地居民信息消费支出增加; 而受教育水平和信息基础设施水平的提升, 短期内会对相邻地区产生显著的正向空间溢出效应; 长期效应中, 只有物价和收入对本地居民信息消费支出有影响。【局限】由于数据的可获得性, 选用物价指数、受教育水平、信息基础设施、网民人数、收入等5个因素进行分析, 未考虑的因素可能会对分析结果产生影响。【结论】在研究居民消费的影响因素时, 必须考虑空间效应的各种影响, 否则估计结果可能是有偏的。

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张肃
关键词 信息消费空间相关性内部影响外部影响动态空间杜宾面板模型    
Abstract

[Objective] This paper analyzes the factors influencing information consumption, aiming to further promote such activities among urban Chinese residents. [Methods] First, we studied the development condition, spatial correlation and three types of internal and external influencing factors. Then, we constructed the corresponding Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model and conducted an empirical study. [Results] The information consumption had the durable features but posed no spillover effects. The urban residents’ consumption could also affect the adjoining region residents’ behaviors. The increasing of price and income promoted the information consumption in short term. The improvement of education and information infrastructure posed spatial spillover effects to adjoining residents. In the long term, only the price and income had impacts on local residents. [Limitations] We only examined the impacts of the price, education level, information infrastructure, number of cyber citizen, and income. Other factors might also affect the results. [Conclusions] We must study the residents’ information consumption behaviors based on all spatial spillovers to avoid biased results.

Key wordsInformation Consumption    Spatial Correlation    Internal Influence    External Influence    Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model
收稿日期: 2017-02-15      出版日期: 2017-06-06
ZTFLH:  F49 G35  
基金资助:*本文系国家社会科学基金项目“信息消费的统计测度与评价方法研究”(项目编号: 14CTJ002)的研究成果之一
引用本文:   
张肃. 中国城镇居民信息消费的空间相关性与影响因素分析*——基于动态空间杜宾面板模型的实证研究[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2017, 1(5): 52-61.
Zhang Su. Information Consumption of Urban Chinese Residents: An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2017, 1(5): 52-61.
链接本文:  
https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2017.05.07      或      https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/Y2017/V1/I5/52
  2002年-2013年城镇居民信息消费支出变化趋势
  2002年-2013年城镇居民信息消费系数变化趋势
  2002年-2013年城镇居民信息消费倾向趋势图
年份 Moran’s I 年份 Moran’s I
2002 0.137(0.057) 2008 0.325(0.001)
2003 0.151(0.042) 2009 0.330(0.001)
2004 0.163(0.036) 2010 0.312(0.001)
2005 0.184(0.025) 2011 0.346(0.000)
2006 0.248(0.005) 2012 0.336(0.001)
2007 0.290(0.002) 2013 0.341(0.000)
  中国城镇居民信息消费的空间Moran’s I及其显著性
  2002年-2013年Moran’s I变化趋势图
  2013年中国城镇居民信息消费的Moran’s I散点图
  2002年-2013年中国城镇居民信息消费均值的Moran’s I散点图
检验方法 结果
个体固定效应LR检验 399.9098(0.0000)
时间固定效应LR检验 104.9339(0.0000)
lmlag 5.1182(0.024)
lmlag_robust 0.0027(0.958)
lmerror 10.9857(0.001)
lmerror_robust 5.8702(0.015)
  静态条件下空间效应检验结果
回归模型 空间和时间
固定效应模型
空间和时间
固定效应模型(偏差修正)
空间和时间
随机效应模型
动态空间杜宾模型
L. lnCZXF 0.4712(10.4168)***
W* L. lnCZXF 0.1887(2.3141)**
lnCZJG 1.06434(4.4578)*** 1.0848(4.2981)*** 1.0965(4.5556)*** 0.7646(3.4579)***
lnSJYSR -0.1046(-1.5962) -0.1077(-1.5542) -0.0398(-0.6349) -0.0396(-0.8667)
lnCTGL -0.0663(-3.9969)*** -0.0659(-3.7555)*** -0.0522(-3.6276)*** -0.0613(-4.1539)***
lnWMRS 0.0038(0.2124) 0.0038(0.2022) 0.0319(2.2737)** 0.0402(2.0903)**
lnCZSR 1.6516(20.2361) *** 1.6531(19.1488)*** 1.4574(22.7761)*** 1.1439(13.5611)***
W* lnCZJG -1.5298(-3.6136)*** -1.5614(-3.4889)*** -1.7939(-4.2502)*** -0.2362(-0.9285)
W* lnSJYSR 0.2964(2.1015)** 0.2988(2.0029)** 0.1601(1.1936) 0.1625(1.2939)
W* lnCTGL -0.0097(-0.2577) -0.0043(-0.1070) 0.0186(0.5578) 0.0601(1.5057)
W* lnWMRS 0.0254(0.7066) 0.0246(0.6471) -0.0728(-2.8898)*** 0.0263(0.6973)
W* lnCZSR -0.3943(-2.3268)** -0.5033(-2.9218)** -0.5752(-4.1326)*** -0.6938(-3.5374)***
W* lnCZXF 0.2100(3.1297)*** 0.2757(4.2727)*** 0.2560(3.9668)*** 0.1047(1.1838)
R2 0.9830 0.9831 0.9689 0.9878
LogL 572.0496 572.0496 -8441.0843 591.1580
Wald_spatial_lag 22.5950(0.0004) 23.6893(0.0003)
LR_spatial_lag 22.0533(0.0005) 22.0533(0.0005)
Wald_spatial_error 15.9661(0.0069) 13.4830(0.0192)
LR_spatial_error 15.4240(0.0087) 15.4240(0.0087)
$\tau +\rho +\eta $ 0.7646
Wald_test $\tau +\rho +\eta $=1 7.2460(0.0071)
时间效应检验 3.3850(0.0003)
  静态、动态空间面板杜宾模型回归结果
直接效应 间接效应 总效应
L. lnCZXF -0.5237
(-13.3628)***
0.2612
(3.0806)***
-0.2625
(-2.8708)***
  动态空间面板杜宾模型信息消费惯性影响效应测度
短期效应 长期效应
直接效应 间接效应 总效应 直接效应 间接效应 总效应
lnCZJG 0.7543(3.1676)*** 0.0276(0.3319) 0.7818(2.8301)*** 1.5833(1.9698)** 2.2604(0.1583) 3.8438(0.2592)
lnSJYSR -0.0405(-0.6691) 0.0389(1.7555)* -0.0015(-0.0220) -0.0738(-0.5347) 0.0088(0.0063) -0.0650(-0.0441)
lnCTGL -0.0322(-1.1729) 1.2592(8.4663)*** 1.2270(7.3295)*** 0.3030(0.3792) 5.5197(0.2847) 5.8227(0.2901)
lnWMRS 0.0331(1.4241) -0.2685(-0.5321) -0.2353(-0.4567) 0.0058(0.0111) -1.0672(-0.1008) -1.0614(-0.0965)
lnCZSR 1.1548(12.1742)*** 0.3256(1.6222) 1.4804(5.9462)*** 2.5013(2.5622)** 4.4877(0.2062) 6.9890(0.3103)
  动态空间面板杜宾模型短期、长期效应测度
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