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数据分析与知识发现  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (10): 37-45    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0769
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基于排队论的反恐警力优化配置策略研究*
刘忠轶,胡晨望(),谭坤,高岩
中国人民公安大学管理学院 北京 100038
Optimizing Anti-terrorist Policing with Queueing Theory
Zhongyi Liu,Chenwang Hu(),Kun Tan,Yan Gao
School of Management, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
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摘要 

【目的】应用排队论模型, 优化反恐警力配置策略, 提高反恐效率和效果。【方法】M/M/1/∞和M/M/N/∞两类排队模型的基础上, 构建两种反恐警力优化配置模型, 分别求解最优警力配置方案, 通过算例对两种警力优化配置模型进行比较分析。【结果】基于M/M/N/∞排队模型的反恐警力配置模型在反恐警力配置效率和恐怖袭击案件处置效率方面更具优势。【局限】由于实际恐怖袭击案件数据和警力数据获取受限, 未进行实际数据的验证。【结论】应用排队论模型可以实现反恐警力资源的有效配置, 尤其应用M/M/N/∞模型更具优势, 可以有效提高反恐警力配置效率和恐怖袭击案件处置效率。

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刘忠轶
胡晨望
谭坤
高岩
关键词 排队论反恐警力优化配置    
Abstract

[Objective] This paper optimizes the deployment of anti-terrorist police resources based on the queueing theory, aiming to improve the effectiveness of counterterrorism actions. [Methods] First, we proposed two optimal anti-terrorist policing strategies based on the M/M/1/∞ and M/M/N/∞ queueing models. Then, we compared the performance of the two models with simulation cases on four factors. [Results] We found that the M/M/N/∞ model had better performance. [Limitations] We did not examine the proposed model with real world anti-terrorism and policing data. [Conclusions] The M/M/N/∞ queueing model could help us create better anti-terrorist policing strategies.

Key wordsQueueing Theory    Anti-Terrorist    Optimization of Police Resources
收稿日期: 2018-07-15     
基金资助:*本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目“当前我国反恐形式及对策研究”(项目编号: 15ZDA034)、国家社会科学基金项目“反恐维稳背景下边疆民族地区维稳战略研究”(项目编号: 14BZZ028)和中国人民公安大学基本科研业务费项目“基于排队理论的警力资源优化配置策略研究”(项目编号: 2018JKF336)的研究成果之一
引用本文:   
刘忠轶,胡晨望,谭坤,高岩. 基于排队论的反恐警力优化配置策略研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(10): 37-45.
Zhongyi Liu,Chenwang Hu,Kun Tan,Yan Gao. Optimizing Anti-terrorist Policing with Queueing Theory. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, DOI:10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0769.
链接本文:  
http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0769
图1  M/M/1/∞反恐排队模型
图2  M/M/N/∞反恐排队模型
c1 c2 n* Wq
100 300 380 0.0507
200 300 279 0.0978
300 300 234 0.1429
400 300 207 0.1864
500 300 189 0.2286
表1  M/M/1/∞反恐排队模型中c1n*Wq的影响
c1 c2 n* Wq
300 100 149 0.3880
300 200 197 0.2076
300 300 234 0.1429
300 400 265 0.1092
300 500 292 0.0886
表2  M/M/1/∞反恐排队模型中c2n*Wq的影响
c3 c2 $\frac{{{c}_{3}}}{{{c}_{2}}}$ N* 总警力(${{\bar{N}}^{\text{*}}}$) Wq
10 300 0.0333 6 120 0.01818
20 300 0.0667 6 120 0.01818
30 300 0.1000 5 100 0.09180
40 300 0.1333 5 100 0.09180
50 300 0.1667 5 100 0.09180
表3  M/M/N/∞反恐排队模型中c3N*Wq的影响
c3 c2 $\frac{{{c}_{3}}}{{{c}_{2}}}$ N* 总警力(${{\bar{N}}^{\text{*}}}$) Wq
30 100 0.300 5 100 0.09180
30 200 0.150 5 100 0.09180
30 300 0.100 5 100 0.09180
30 400 0.075 5 100 0.09180
30 500 0.060 6 120 0.01818
表4  M/M/N/∞反恐排队模型中c2N*Wq的影响
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