Abstract：This paper analyses the diffused character of public opinion derived for network emergencies,based on the diffused model of public opinion for network emergencies,then researches on public opinion derived character for network, builds derived public opinion monitoring and early warning model through describing the extent of public opinion derived and making the definition of derivative rate.The feasibility of the theoretical analysis is verified by an example, and it can provide reference for the government to realize network management of public opinion.
兰月新. 突发事件网络衍生舆情监测模型研究[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2013, 29(3): 51-57.
Lan Yuexin. Research on Monitoring Model of Public Opinion Derived for Network Emergencies. New Technology of Library and Information Service, 2013, 29(3): 51-57.
［1］ 中国互联网络信息中心.第31次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告［R/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://www.cnnic.net.cn/hlwfzyj/hlwxzbg/hlwtjbg/201301/t20130115_38508.htm.（China Internet Network Information Center. The 31st Statistics Report of China Internet Development［R/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://www.cnnic.net.cn/hlwfzyj/hlwxzbg/hlwtjbg/201301/t20130115_38508.htm.）［2］ 喻发胜,王晓红,陈波.网络传播的衍生效应与网络舆论［J］.湖北社会科学,2010(5):179-181.(Yu Fasheng, Wang Xiaohong, Chen Bo. Derivative Effect of Network Communication with the Network of Public Opinion［J］.Hubei Social Sciences,2010(5):179-181.)［3］ 王国华,方付建.突发舆情危机事件衍生效应研究［J］.天津社会科学,2012(1):70-72.(Wang Guohua, Fang Fujian. The Research of Sudden Public Opinion Crises Derivative Effects［J］.Tianjin Social Sciences,2012(1):70-72.)［5］ Zanette D H. Dynamics of Rumor Propagation on Small-world Networks［J］.Physical Review E,2002,65(4): 041908．［6］ Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F. Dynamics of Rumor Spreading in Complex Networks［J］.Physical Review E,2004,69(6):066130．［7］ Zhou J, Liu Z H, Li B W. Influence of Network Structure on Rumor Propagation［J］.Physics Letters A,2007,368(6):458-463．［8］ Lu L Y, Chen D B, Zhou T. Small World Yields the Most Effective Information Spreading［J］.New Journal of Physics,2011(13):123005.［9］ 百度百科.8·7甘肃舟曲特大泥石流［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://baike.baidu.com/view/4098677.htm?subLemmaId=4098677&fromenter=%D6%DB%C7%FA%C4%E0%CA%AF%C1%F7.(Baidu Baike.8·7 Gansu Zhouqu Large Debris Flow［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://baike.baidu.com/view/4098677.htm?subLemmaId=4098677&fromenter=%D6%DB%C7%FA%C4%E0%CA%AF%C1%F7.)［10］ 新浪新闻.舟曲特大泥石流成因调查［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100823/08408527741.shtml.(Sina News.Investigation Causes of Zhouqu Large Debris Flow［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100823/08408527741.shtml.)［11］ 宁宣熙, 刘思峰.管理预测与决策方法［M］.北京:科学出版社,2008:120-121.(Ning Xuanxi, Liu Sifeng. Management Forecast and Decision-making Method［M］.Beijing: Science Press, 2008:120-121.)［12］ 兰月新,邓新元.突发事件网络舆情演进规律模型研究［J］.情报杂志,2011(8): 82-85.(Lan Yuexin, Deng Xinyuan. Research on the Evolution Model of Network Public Opinion of Sudden Events［J］. Journal of Intelligence, 2011(8):82-85.)［13］ 韩中庚.数学建模方法及其应用［M］.北京:高等教育出版社,2006: 58-60. (Han Zhonggeng. Mathematical Modeling Method and Application［M］.Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2006:58-60.)［14］ 凤凰网新闻频道.归真堂事件展现网络公关攻防技巧［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://news.ifeng.com/gundong/detail_2012_02/29/12862548_0.shtml?_from_ralated. (Phoenix News Channel. Guizhentang Event Show the Network Public Relations Offensive and Defensive Skills［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://news.ifeng.com/gundong/detail_2012_02/29/12862548_0.shtml?_from_ralated.)［15］百度百科.归真堂事件［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://baike.baidu.com/view/7904378.htm?fromId=7954727. (Baidu Baike. The Guizhentang Event［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://baike.baidu.com/view/7904378.htm?fromId=7954727.)［16］ 网易财经.归真堂被曝聘请公关公司化解危机［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://money.163.com/12/0220/16/7QNJVRO9002526O3.html.(NetEase Finance. Guizhentang Traced to Hire a Public Relations Firm to Defuse the Crisis［EB/OL］. ［2013-01-20］.http://money.163.com/12/0220/16/7QNJVRO9002526O3.html.)［17］ 郭碧青.从“归真堂”事件报道看议程设置在媒体引导舆论方面的作用［J］.东南传播,2012(6): 50-52.(Guo Biqing. The Agenda-setting Role of Public Opinion in the Media Guide from “Guizhentang” Event Reported［J］.Southeast Communication,2012(6):50-52.)［18］ 蒋楠.归真堂“开放日”的公关效果评估［J］.国际公关,2012(2):78.(Jiang Nan. PR Effect Evaluation of Guizhentang “Open Day”［J］.PR Magazine, 2012(2):78.)［19］ 搜狐焦点网.归真堂被指伪造名人微博假公关-网络水军猖獗搅浑舆论［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://cq.focus.cn/news/2012-02-27/1802678.html. (Sohu Focus Network.Guizhentang Accused of Forgery the Celebrity Microblogging False PR-Network Water Army Rampant Stir the Muddy Public Opinion［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://cq.focus.cn/news/2012-02-27/1802678.html.)［20］ 腾讯财经. 3月5日财媒头条：证监会正就归真堂上市征意见［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://finance.qq.com/a/20120305/000715.htm.(Tencent Finance.March 5 Financial Media Headlines: The SFC Is Now Listed on Guizhentang Church views. ［EB/OL］.［2013-01-20］.http://finance.qq.com/a/20120305/000715.htm.)
