Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis of Civil Aviation Security with Risk Ranking and Decision Tree
Feng Wen’gang1,2,3(), Li Yan4, Li Fuhai4, Wang Xin1,2, Zhou Xiping1,2
1School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China 2Research Centre for Civil Aviation Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China 3Police Science Postdoctoral Research Station, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China 4Public Security Bureau, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Beijing 100710, China
[Objective] This paper conducts risk assessment and decision-making analysis of civil aviation, aiming to address the security challenges facing this industry. [Methods] Based on the risk assessment results of civil aviation, we built the decision tree for civil aviation counter-terrorism, which examined the probabilities, deterrence effect, substitution effect, effectiveness of countermeasures and consequences of the potential civil aviation terrotist attacks. [Results] We evaluated the effects of various countermeasures based on the analysis of the potential terrorist attack threats. [Limitations] Only examined the proposed model with terrorist incidents happened in the past, which is difficult to measure future events. [Conclusions] This paper studies the attributes of possible terrorist attacks against the civil aviation system, including their probabilities, countermeasures, and the consequences.
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