面向趋势预测的热点主题演化分析方法研究*

岳丽欣,刘自强,胡正银

Evolution Analysis of Hot Topics with Trend-Prediction

Yue Lixin,Liu Ziqiang,Hu Zhengyin

表3 模型参数确定

Table 3 Determination of Model Parameters

ARIMA（p,d,q） BIC ARIMA（p,d,q） BIC ARIMA(0, 0, 1) BIC:-77.88 ARIMA(1, 2, 0) BIC:-111.36 ARIMA(0, 0, 2) BIC:-80.42 ARIMA(1, 2, 1) BIC:-113.48 ARIMA(0, 1, 1) BIC:-127.98 ARIMA(1, 2, 2) BIC:-107.37 ARIMA(0, 1, 2) BIC:-119.46 ARIMA(2, 0, 0) BIC:-133.28 ARIMA(0, 2, 1) BIC:-110.23 ARIMA(2, 0, 1) BIC:-140.00 ARIMA(0, 2, 2) BIC:-109.99 ARIMA(2, 0, 2) BIC:-125.84 ARIMA(1, 0, 0) BIC:-136.18 ARIMA(2, 1, 0) BIC:-130.73 ARIMA(1, 0, 1) BIC:-139.63 ARIMA(2, 1, 1) BIC:-127.64 ARIMA(1, 0, 2) BIC:-132.44 ARIMA(2, 1, 2) BIC:-116.59 ARIMA(1, 1, 0) BIC:-136.13 ARIMA(2, 2, 0) BIC:-112.62 ARIMA(1, 1, 1) BIC:-129.06 ARIMA(2, 2, 1) BIC:-115.63 ARIMA(1, 1, 2) BIC:-117.46 ARIMA(2, 2, 2) BIC:-103.39