1National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China 2Department of Library, Information and Archives Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academic of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China 3Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
[Objective] This paper constructs a new analysis framework for technology evolution, aiming to address the problems of the topic similarity calculation and manually setting the threshold to judge the correlation between window technology topics. [Methods] We established the new framework based on two layer topic model, which identified the dynamic topics using the LDA and NMF. Then, we evaluated the technical topic identification effects with the indicators of inner consistency and outer difference of the topics. Finally, we analyzed the evolution of technical topics from the perspectives of topic growth and importance. [Results] We examined our new method with data from the field of resources and environment. The two layer topic model based on NMF is more effective in dynamic topic recognition, and the analysis results of technology evolution can be verified from the list of breakthrough technologies released by MIT Technology Review. [Limitations] This paper only studies the development of technology from emergence to extinction, and does not examine the division, derivation and integration of technology. [Conclusions] The proposed method can automatically identify dynamic topics and analyze their evolution tracks using the literature. It has application value in scientific and technological information analysis.
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