[Objective] This paper tries to build an accurate and effective forecasting model for major infectious diseases based on multi-machine learning, aiming to predict outbreak trends and help formulate countermeasures in advance. [Methods] We established an ensemble prediction model with three machine learning optimal weight combinations of ANFIS, LSSVM and LSTM from the Gray Wolf Optimization algorithm. Then, we assessed the model’s prediction performance with the COVID-19 epidemic data. [Results] The ANFIS, LSSVM, and LSTM were suitable for predicting confirmed cases, death cases, and recovery cases. The average R2 of the proposed model reached 0.989, 0.993 and 0.987for the three scenarios. The average RMSE were 37.37%, 63.93% and 53.37% lower than the single model, respectively. [Limitations] The model needs to be examined with data sets on other major infectious diseases. [Conclusions] The ensemble prediction model based on Gray Wolf Optimization can effectively merge the advantages of multiple machine learning models to obtain stable and accurate results.
曲宗希, 沙勇忠, 李雨桐. 基于灰狼优化与多机器学习的重大传染病集合预测研究——以COVID-19疫情为例*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2022, 6(8): 122-133.
Qu Zongxi, Sha Yongzhong, Li Yutong. Predicting Major Infectious Diseases Based on Grey Wolf Optimization and Multi-machine Learning: Case Study of COVID-19. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2022, 6(8): 122-133.
Wu T, Perrings C, Kinzig A, et al. Economic Growth, Urbanization, Globalization, and the Risks of Emerging Infectious Diseases in China: A Review[J]. Ambio, 2017, 46(1): 18-29.
doi: 10.1007/s13280-016-0809-2
(Chen Ye, Wang Ping, Liu Fangwei, et al. Progress in Researches on Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 170-172.)
[3]
Devadoss P R, Pan S L, Singh S. Managing Knowledge Integration in a National Health-Care Crisis: Lessons Learned from Combating SARS in Singapore[J]. IEEE Transactions on Information Technology in Biomedicine, 2005, 9(2):266-275.
pmid: 16138543
[4]
Racey P A, Fenton B. Mubareka S, et al. Don’t Misrepresent Link Between Bats and SARS[J]. Nature, 2018, 553(7688): 281.
[5]
Zumla A, Hui D S, Perlman S. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome[J]. The Lancet, 2015, 386(9997): 995-1007.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60454-8
[6]
Cauchemez S, Besnard M, Bompard P, et al. Association Between Zika Virus and Microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013-15: A Retrospective Study[J]. The Lancet, 2016, 387(10033): 2125-2132.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00651-6
[7]
Swapnarekha H, Behera H S, Nayak J, et al. Role of Intelligent Computing in COVID-19 Prognosis: A State-of-the-Art Review[J]. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, 138: 109947.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109947
[8]
Ghosal S, Sengupta S, Majumder M, et al. Linear Regression Analysis to Predict the Number of Deaths in India due to SARS-CoV-2 at 6 Weeks from Day 0 (100 Cases-March 14th 2020)[J]. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews, 2020, 14(4): 311-315.
[9]
Ly K T. A COVID-19 Forecasting System Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2021, 41: 101844.
doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101844
[10]
Borghi P H, Zakordonets O, Teixeira J P. A COVID-19 Time Series Forecasting Model Based on MLP ANN[J]. Procedia Computer Science, 2021, 181: 940-947.
doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.250
[11]
Parbat D, Chakraborty M. A Python Based Support Vector Regression Model for Prediction of COVID19 Cases in India[J]. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, 138: 109942.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109942
[12]
Shastri S, Singh K, Kumar S, et al. Time Series Forecasting of Covid-19 Using Deep Learning Models: India-USA Comparative Case Study[J]. Chaos Solitons & Fractals, 2020, 140: 110227.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110227
(Hong Bin, Chen Jinxiu, Wang Liansheng, et al. Analysis and Prediction of the Spread Trend of COVID-19 based on SEIR-LSTM Mixed Model[J]. Journal of Xiamen University(Natural Science), 2020, 59(6): 1034-1040.)
(Cheng Linghua, Chen Huayou. Properties of Weighted Geometric Means Combination Forecasting Method Based on Theil Coefficient[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2007, 16(2): 78-83.)
(Yuan Hongjun, Zhong Mei, Wu Qingpeng. Interval Combination Prediction Model based on IGOWLA Operator. Statistics & Decision, 2016 (14): 22-25.)
[16]
Bates J M, Granger C W J. The Combination of Forecasts[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1969, 20(4): 451-468.
doi: 10.1057/jors.1969.103
[17]
Ren Y, Suganthan P N, Srikanth N. Ensemble Methods for Wind and Solar Power Forecasting—A State-of-the-Art Review[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, 50: 82-91.
doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.081
[18]
Mirjalili S, Mirjalili S M, Lewis A. Grey Wolf Optimizer[J]. Advances in Engineering Software, 2014, 69: 46-61.
doi: 10.1016/j.advengsoft.2013.12.007
[19]
Emary E, Zawbaa H M, Grosan C, et al. Feature Subset Selection Approach by Gray-Wolf Optimization[C]// Proceedings of Afro-European Conference for Industrial Advancement. 2015: 1-13.
(Wang Chen, Dong Yongquan. Feature Selection Based on Binary Grey Wolf Optimization and Text Clustering[J]. Computer Engineering and Design, 2021, 42(9): 2526-2535.)
(Li Tianyi, Chen Hongmei. A New Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm for Solving Feature Selection Problem[J]. Journal of Zhengzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 53(2): 41-49.)
[22]
Wong L I, Sulaiman M H, Mohamed M R. Solving Economic Dispatch Problems with Practical Constraints Utilizing Grey Wolf Optimizer[J]. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2015, 785: 511-515.
doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.785.511
[23]
Kamboj V K, Bath S K, Dhillon J S. Solution of Non-Convex Economic Load Dispatch Problem Using Grey Wolf Optimizer[J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2016, 27(5):1301-1316.
doi: 10.1007/s00521-015-1934-8
[24]
Sulaiman M H, Ing W L, Mustaffa Z, et al. Grey Wolf Optimizer for Solving Economic Dispatch Problem with Valve-Loading Effects[J]. APRN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 2015, 10(21): 1619-1628.
[25]
Jayabarathi T, Raghunathan T, Adarsh B R, et al. Economic Dispatch Using Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimizer[J]. Energy, 2016, 111: 630-641.
doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.105
[26]
Yusof Y, Mustaffa Z. Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity Using Grey Wolf Optimizer[C]// Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists. 2015.
[27]
Mustaffa Z, Sulaiman M H, Kahar M N M. Training LSSVM with GWO for Price Forecasting[C]// Proceedings of 2015 International Conference on Informatics, Electronics& Vision. 2015: 1-6.
[28]
Hassanin M F, Shoeb A M, Hassanien A E. Grey Wolf Optimizer-Based Back-Propagation Neural Network Algorithm[C]// Proceedings of the 12th International Computer Engineering Conference. 2016: 213-218.
[29]
Jang J S R. ANFIS: Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1993, 23(3): 665-685.
doi: 10.1109/21.256541
[30]
Suykens J, Vandewalle J. Least Squares Support Vector Machine Classifiers[J]. Neural Processing Letters, 1999, 9: 293-300.
doi: 10.1023/A:1018628609742
[31]
Hochreiter S, Schmidhuber J. Long Short-Term Memory[J]. Neural Computation, 1997, 9(8): 1735-1780.
pmid: 9377276
[32]
Clemen R T. Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5(4): 559-583.
doi: 10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5
[33]
Dong E S, Du H R, Gardner L. An Interactive Web-Based Dashboard to Track COVID-19 in Real Time[J]. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2020, 20(5): 533-534.
doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1
[34]
Diebold F X, Mariano R S. Comparing Predictive Accuracy[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1995, 13(3): 253-263.