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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2020, Vol. 4 Issue (2/3): 18-28    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2019.0720
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Predicitng Retweets of Government Microblogs with Deep-combined Features
Xu Yuemei(),Liu Yunwen,Cai Lianqiao
School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing 100089, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper tries to predict the number of retweets of government microblogs, aiming to evaluate the important features affecting retweets and public opinions.[Methods] First, we used the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) to combine user, time and content features. Then, we predicted the retweet numbers of government microblogs. Finally, we ranked the importance of every feature to find the most important one for retweets.[Results] The proposed model improved the accuracy of retweet prediction to 0.933. The semantic feature of microblog texts is the most important one.[Limitations] We did not study the impacts of indirect retweeting behaviors.[Conclusions] The CNN-GBDT model for deep-combined features could effectively predict retweets of government microblogs.
Key words： Government Microblogs      Retweeting Scale Prediction      Convolutional Neural Network      Text Classification     
Received: 20 June 2019      Published: 26 April 2020
ZTFLH:  TP393  
Corresponding Authors: Yuemei Xu     E-mail: xuyuemei@bfsu.edu.cn
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Yuemei Xu
Yunwen Liu
Lianqiao Cai

Cite this article:

Xu Yuemei,Liu Yunwen,Cai Lianqiao. Predicitng Retweets of Government Microblogs with Deep-combined Features. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2020, 4(2/3): 18-28.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2019.0720     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2020/V4/I2/3/18

Flowchart of Retweeting Scale Prediction of Government Microblogs Based on Deep-combined Features
The Procedure of Microblogs Text Semantic Calculation Based on CNN
微博编号 传播规模 微博内容 发布时间 点赞数（次） 转发数（次） 评论数（条） 发布者 粉丝数（人）
1 高 平安回家过大年 2019-01-18 07:30 536 5 813 474 公安部交通安全微发布 5 309 399
2 低 爱心护考,交警同行 2018-06-07 15:13 32 64 6 公安部交通安全微发布 5 309 399
3 高 曾经,在故宫,观画... 2018-07-25 11:34 10 753 5 138 1 149 故宫博物院 6 282 823
Examples of the Raw Dataset
参数 参数值
词向量维度 300
卷积核个数 256
卷积核大小 5
Dropout 0.5
batch_size 64
迭代次数 20
激活函数 ReLU
Parameter Settings of CNN
特征传播
类别		 CNN文本语义打分 关键词相似度 粉丝数 发布者日均
发博数		 发布者高转
发率		 时间特征
高 1.000 0.317 0.167 0.357 0.147 -1.204
高 1.000 0.553 0.167 0.357 0.147 -0.223
低 0.125 0.030 0.024 0.571 0.018 -0.223
低 0.476 0.065 0.024 0.571 0.018 -0.223
Examples of Input Dataset in the Retweeting-Scale-Prediction Model
混淆矩阵 预测值
高转发 低转发
实际值 高转发 TT TF
低转发 FT FF
Confusion Matrix
算法 准确率 召回率 精确度 F1值
CNN+SVM 0.905 0.823 0.886 0.861
SVM 0.833 0.695 0.781 0.737
CNN+GBDT 0.933 0.869 0.925 0.918
GBDT 0.842 0.683 0.817 0.768
Experiment Results
Accuracy of the Four Algorithms
Recall of the Four Algorithms
Precision of the Four Algorithms
F1-value of the Four Algorithms
指标
特征组合		 准确率 召回率 精确度 F1值
发布者特征+内容特征+时间特征 0.933 0.869 0.925 0.918
发布者特征+时间特征 0.832 0.667 0.800 0.733
内容特征+时间特征 0.886 0.787 0.861 0.852
发布者特征+内容特征 0.931 0.867 0.922 0.912
Performance of GBDT Model Using Different Feature Settings
指标
特征组合		 准确率 召回率 精确度 F1值
发布者特征+内容特征+时间特征 0.905 0.823 0.886 0.861
发布者特征+时间特征 0.814 0.681 0.742 0.712
内容特征+时间特征 0.852 0.693 0.837 0.760
发布者特征+内容特征 0.897 0.806 0.877 0.843
Performance of SVM Model Using Different Feature Settings
Importance Ranking of Different Features Measured by GBDT
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