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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2021, Vol. 5 Issue (11): 59-67    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0525
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Predicting Online Public Opinion in Emergencies Based on CEEMDAN-BP
Cheng Tiejun1,Wang Man1,Huang Baofeng1,Feng Lanping2()
1School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China
2Business School, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper tries to predict the development trend of online public opinion in emergencies. [Methods] First, we identified multiple uncertain factors affecting the evolution of online public opinion. Then, we constructed a CEEMDAN-BP prediction model combining Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise, phase-space reconstruction and Back Propagation Network. Finally, we conducted an empirical study to examine the new model with three emergencies. [Results] Our CEEMDAN-BP model could better predict the development trend of online public opinion in emergencies. The average absolute errors of prediction in three emergencies were 8.60%, 17.98% and 11.97%, respectively. Our model’s prediction accuracy and stability were better than the existing ones. [Limitations] The experimental data was based on the daily statistics, which could not fully reflect the changing public opinion. [Conclusions] The CEEMDAN-BP model can effectively predict the development trend of online public opinion in emergencies, which helps related departments to prepare for and manage the emergencies.

Key wordsEmergencies      Online Public Opinion      CEEMDAN      Phase-space Reconstruction      Back Propagation Network     
Received: 25 May 2021      Published: 23 August 2021
ZTFLH:  C916  
Fund:National Social Science Fund of China(17CXW012)
Corresponding Authors: Feng Lanping,ORCID:0000-0003-2334-6621     E-mail: 19941415@hhu.edu.cn

Cite this article:

Cheng Tiejun, Wang Man, Huang Baofeng, Feng Lanping. Predicting Online Public Opinion in Emergencies Based on CEEMDAN-BP. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2021, 5(11): 59-67.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0525     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2021/V5/I11/59

Process of the Model
Trend of Baidu Index for Three Emergencies
Decomposition Results of Baidu Index for Three Emergencies Based on CEEMDAN
参数

事件
新冠肺炎疫情 江苏响水爆炸 长春长生疫苗
τ 3 4 4
m 4 3 3
The Best Delay Time and Embedding Dimension
Prediction Results for Three Emergencies
案例事件 指标 CEEMDAN-BP CEEMDAN-SVM EMD-BP EMD-SVM BP SVM
新冠肺炎疫情 MAPE 8.60% 32.09% 22.86% 37.31% 24.68% 31.57%
PRMSE 9.79% 32.71% 26.08% 37.77% 15.29% 32.17%
TIC 0.047 0.141 0.117 0.160 0.072 0.139
江苏响水爆炸 MAPE 17.98% 89.21% 35.83% 185.12% 22.82% 44.55%
PRMSE 25.87% 93.96% 44.58% 185.09% 25.59% 44.20%
TIC 0.129 0.322 0.190 0.480 0.116 0.181
长春长生疫苗 MAPE 11.97% 30.93% 24.93% 28.95% 28.05% 27.31%
PRMSE 15.30% 33.40% 26.42% 32.20% 32.73% 27.45%
TIC 0.072 0.156 0.150 0.140 0.144 0.121
Performance Models of the Models
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