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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2021, Vol. 5 Issue (11): 45-58    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0292
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A Personalized Recommendation Model with Time Series Fluctuation of User Interest
Ding Hao1,2,Ai Wenhua1,2,Hu Guangwei1,2(),Li Shuqing3,Suo Wei4
1School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2Institute of Government Data Resources,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023, China
3School of Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China
4School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191,China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper constructs a prediction model based on hybrid time series to improve the recommendation accuracy. [Methods] First, we constructed a trend prediction model using neural network and fuzzy clustering technique for interest fluctuations at different magnitudes. Then, we utilized neural network to extract and predict the sliding features of small fluctuation series. Finally, we used the membership degree of fuzzy clustering to divide the relationship for large fluctuation series data. [Results] User simulation tests with four groups of experimental data showed that extracted data features for different amplitudes of interest fluctuation yielded more accurate prediction results, which were 19.18% lower than other algorithms’ RMSE and 45.78% higher than other algorithms' Hit-Ratio. [Limitations] The analysis of time fluctuation relies on historical data, therefore, additional cold-start algorithm is needed to preprocess the sparse historical data. [Conclusions] This method could effectively process the fluctuation of interest, and improve the personalized information services.

Key wordsTime Series      Interest Fluctuation      Neural Networks      Fuzzy Clustering      Hybrid Forecasting      Personalized Recommendation     
Received: 24 March 2021      Published: 23 December 2021
ZTFLH:  TP391  
Fund:National Social Science Fund of China(20&ZD154);Innovation and Entrepreneurship Big Data and Theoretical Research Project of Nanjing University in 2021(NJU-DI2021004);Key University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province(19KJA510011)
Corresponding Authors: Hu Guangwei,ORCID:0000-0003-1303-363X     E-mail: hugw@nju.edu.cn

Cite this article:

Ding Hao, Ai Wenhua, Hu Guangwei, Li Shuqing, Suo Wei. A Personalized Recommendation Model with Time Series Fluctuation of User Interest. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2021, 5(11): 45-58.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0292     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2021/V5/I11/45

The Framework of Model
Structure Division of Project Compound Category
Schematic Diagram of Neural Network Model
Schematic Diagram of Time Series Fuzzy Clustering Model
评价标准划分(K=5)
子区间 [0,1] (1,2) [2,3] (3,4) [4,5]
模糊集 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
评价标准 评价很低 评价较低 评价中等 评价较高 评价很高
Division of Evaluation Criteria for Fuzzy Time Series
项目ID 标题 类型
24 Powder (1995) Drama|Sci-Fi
25 Leaving Las Vegas (1995) Drama|Romance
26 Othello (1995) Drama
30 Now and Then (1995) Children|Drama
Basic Information of MovieLens Dataset
数据集划分 用户 项目 评分 稀疏度
ML10M@60% 42 941 6 089 10 000 054 98.69%
ML10M@80% 57 254 8 273 8 195 257 98.27%
ML20M@60% 83 096 16 625 10 025 571 99.27%
ML20M@80% 110 795 20 213 17 425 571 99.22%
Test Data Set Size
Percentage of Each Tag Data in MovieLens Dataset
Parameters α and δ Performance Verification Results in Different Test
时间单位 兴趣波动幅度 α-取值区间比例
α-区间 [0,0.05) [0.05,0.10) [0.10,0.15) [0.15,0.20) [0.20,0.25)
0.480 3 0.312 5 0.059 1 0.036 7 0.031 6
0.468 7 0.321 7 0.066 4 0.038 8 0.026 6
0.3991 0.340 4 0.062 2 0.053 3 0.036 8
α-区间 [0.25,0.30) [0.30,0.35) [0.35,0.40) [0.40,0.45) [0.45,∞)
0.024 4 0.021 3 0.019 4 0.011 2 0.003 5
0.022 5 0.020 9 0.017 4 0.011 8 0.005 2
0.032 4 0.027 3 0.024 7 0.017 1 0.006 7
Overall Distribution of User Interest Fluctuation Range
Time Series Variance Change of User Interest Amplitude Fluctuation
The Relationship Between Hit Ratio and VAR
项目类型 用户
用户A 用户B 用户N
Adventure A2 → A2,A3
A3 → A3,A4,A5
A1 → A2
A2 → A2,A3,A4
A2 → A2,A3
A3 → A2,A3,A4
Animation A2 → A2 A2 → A5
[Action,Adventure] A2 → A3
A3 → A3,A4
A2 → A3 A3 → A2,A3,A4
[Action,Comedy] A2 → A3
A3 → A1,A2,A3
A2 → A3 A2 → A3
A3 → A4
[Action,War,Western] A2 → A2,A3
A3 → A3,A4
A2 → A3
A3 → A3
A2 → A3
A3 → A2,A3
Fuzzy Relation Group of User Fuzzy Time Series (Some Examples)
预测方法 MAE RSME
随机预测 1.876 3.879
仅用神经网络拟合预测 0.843 1.338
仅用模糊时间序列预测 0.952 1.521
本文HTSRF方法 0.681 0.860
Evaluation of Different Interest Fluctuation Prediction Methods
Iterative Training Prediction Performance of Different Models
方法名称 平均迭代时间/s 平均响应时间/s 平均内存占用/MB
HTSRF 13 0.28 60
PFM 17 0.79 73
SVD++ 592.3 7.86 200
DREAM 30.8 0.25 105
RPF 19 1.27 89
Time and Space Consumption of Different Time Series Models
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