%A Wang Xiaoyun,Yuan Yuan,Shi Lingling %T Predicting Opening Weekend Box Office Prediction Based on Microblog %0 Journal Article %D 2016 %J Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery %R 10.11925/infotech.1003-3513.2016.04.04 %P 31-39 %V 32 %N 4 %U {https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/abstract/article_4209.shtml} %8 2016-04-25 %X

[Objective] This study aims to solve the problems of the existing pre-release box office prediction models due to data constraints and other factors. [Methods] We first retrieved microblog comments, and then used SVM to identify explicit consumer intention, namely strong positive comments. Second, we modified the traditional sentiment classification schemes to build a Chinese microblog sentiment dictionary based on HowNet. Finally, we defined a new user influence feature and used the BP neural network to predict box office. [Results] The proposed model could forecast the opening box office more accuately. [Limitations] Due to inadequate corpus, the sentiment dictionary may not work well for all microblog movie comments. A dynamic forecasting model was not established between the pre-release and post-release period. [Conclusions] The proposed model can effectively predict opening box office.