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断点回归在政策评估研究中的应用:逻辑、现状与前瞻
杨寓涵,潘虹,唐莉
(重庆工商大学经济学院,重庆,400067) (重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆 400044) (复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海,200433)
A Survey of Regression Discontinuity Design in Policy Evaluation Research: Logic, Status Quo and Prospects
Yang Yuhan,Pan Hong,Tang Li
(College of Economics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China) (School of Public Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China) (School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)
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摘要 

[目的]对断点回归设计(RDD)在政策评估领域的经典和前沿研究进行分类综述,对其在我国政策评估的应用前景进行前瞻与讨论。[方法] 综合科睿唯安Web of Science和中国知网CNKI的中英文文献,本文从RDD的基本逻辑出发,甄选断点回归设计在不同政策领域的应用研究开展综述评析。[结果] 分析揭示,继教育、公卫、环境、公共财政等主要应用领域之后,近年来RDD因果推断在国内外科技政策和图书情报领域的政策评估中开始崭露头角。中国学者运用该方法的中文发表已取得较大进展。[局限]断点回归的文献范围有待进一步扩充,与其他政策评估方法的比较分析可进一步深入。[结论] 断点回归方法自提出以来已被大量运用于教育、公共卫生、环境及科技创新等领域的政策评估研究中,未来该方法可增加与准自然实验等其他研究方法的综合研究,扩展断点回归在我国和国际定量政策评估研究的应用分析。

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关键词 断点回归政策评估因果推论循证决策     
Abstract

[Objective] Evidence-based research has received escalating attention in policy practice. As one of the important tools for causal inference, the global scientific community has witnessed a rapid growth of regression discontinuity design (RDD) in empirical research given its strong ability of selection bias elimination, low cost of research implementation, and less concerns of political and ethical restrictions. Yet, there are insufficient literatures that systematically reviewed RDD studies in the domain of policy evaluation, and the discussion of comparing it with other causal inference methods remains rare. [Methods] Combining both international and domestic literature indexed in Web of Science and CNKI, this paper conducts a systematic review on RDD in different policy domains. [Results]Our analysis reveals that except for the dominating fields of education, public health, environment, public administration, RDD has marked its appearance in studies of science policy as well as information science and library science. The Chinese social science community also witnessed a rapid growth of RDD research over the last decade. [Limitations] The literature scope of RDD research needs to be further expanded, and the comparative analysis with other policy evaluation methods can be further deepened. [Conclusions] The RDD research has been widely used in policy evaluation research in the fields of education, public health, environment, and science and technology innovation, etc. In the future, the method can be increased with other research methods such as quasi-natural experiments, so as to expand the application of RDD in the analysis of China's quantitative policy evaluation research and the international quantitative policy evaluation research.

Key words Regression Discontinuity Design    Policy Evaluation    Causal Inference    Evidence-Based Policy Making
     出版日期: 2024-04-19
ZTFLH:  G312  
引用本文:   
杨寓涵, 潘虹, 唐莉. 断点回归在政策评估研究中的应用:逻辑、现状与前瞻 [J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2023.1329.
Yang Yuhan, Pan Hong, Tang Li. A Survey of Regression Discontinuity Design in Policy Evaluation Research: Logic, Status Quo and Prospects . Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 0, (): 1-.
链接本文:  
https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2023.1329      或      https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/Y0/V/I/1
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