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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2023, Vol. 7 Issue (8): 78-94    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.1152
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Modelling and Representation of Risk Event Evolution in Financial Field
Liu Zhenghao1,2,3(),Zhang Zhijian1,2,3,Chen Shuaipu1,2,Zeng Xi1
1School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2Institute of Big Data, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
3Center for Studies of Information Resources, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper addresses the issues of insufficient consideration of evolution patterns and factors in the analysis of financial events evolution. It focuses on modeling and representing the evolution of financial risk events based on event correlation and evolution. This study also constructs an event evolution graph. [Methods] We combined event evolution pattern modeling to analyze evolution conditions and proposed a graph generation algorithm for event evolution based on the nearest neighbor query Ball-Tree. This algorithm enables an adequate representation of financial risk events. [Results] We analyzed the risk events related to “Evergrande Group”. We found that when the strength of event evolution relationships was set at 0.2, 489 correct evolutionary relationships were detected among all 629 event pairs with evolutionary relationships, with an accuracy rate of 77.74%. [Limitations] Due to the space limitation, identifying financial risk events was not extensively described, and the dynamic updating of financial events was not considered. [Conclusions] The proposed modeling approach can analyze various potential association relationships among events, recreate significant scenarios during the development of risk events, and provide effective technical support for understanding potential evolution paths and patterns.
Key words： Event Evolution Analysis      Financial Risk Events      Evolution Model      Event Association      Event Evolution Graph     
Received: 04 November 2022      Published: 28 March 2023
ZTFLH:  TP391  
  F832  
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China(91646206);Scientific and Technological Innovation 2030 - “New Generation Artificial Intelligence” Major Project(2020AAA0108505)
Corresponding Authors: Liu Zhenghao，ORCID：0000-0003-1356-7017，E-mail：zhenghaoliu@whu.edu.cn。   
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Zhenghao Liu
Zhijian Zhang
Shuaipu Chen
Xi Zeng

Cite this article:

Liu Zhenghao, Zhang Zhijian, Chen Shuaipu, Zeng Xi. Modelling and Representation of Risk Event Evolution in Financial Field. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2023, 7(8): 78-94.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.1152     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2023/V7/I8/78

Evolution Stage and Risk Evolution Cycle of Financial Risk Events
“One-to-One” Evolution Process of Baoshang Bank Bankruptcy Events
Evolution Process of “One-to-More” Branch of Crude Oil Treasure Event of Bank of China
Evolution Pattern of “More-to-One” Convergence in Four Circuit Breaker Events of US Stocks
“More-to-More” Evolution Mode of Evergrande Bankruptcy Event
Subgraph Construction Process of Financial Risk Event Evolution
ID 企业/金融机构名称 所属行业 涉及的一级风险类型 包含事件数
1 中国恒大 房地产 财务风险，运营风险 252
2 民生银行 银行 运营风险，财务风险，法律风险 227
3 蚂蚁集团 互联网 战略风险，法律风险 217
4 中金公司 资本市场服务 运营风险，法律风险 200
5 万科A 房地产 运营风险，财务风险 184
6 中信证券 证券 法律风险 162
7 方正证券 证券 运营风险，法律风险 149
8 安信信托 信托 财务风险，法律风险 139
9 坚瑞沃能 新能源汽车 财务风险 111
10 权健 自然医学产业 法律风险 109
11 精功集团 结构建筑、装备制造等 财务风险 97
12 中金公司 证券 运营风险，法律风险 80
13 神州优车 生活服务 运营风险，财务风险 73
14 海航集团 航空 战略风险，财务风险 71
15 康美药业 中药饮片 财务风险 61
16 贵州茅台 白酒 战略风险，市场风险，运营风险 60
17 国海证券 证券 法律风险 54
18 永泰能源 综合能源 运营风险 49
19 包商银行 银行 运营风险 48
20 贵人鸟 纺织服饰 战略风险，运营风险 37
Representative Enterprises and Financial Institutions with Risk Events
排序 实体 亲密度 排序 实体 亲密度
1 恒大财富 1.442 695 6 龙光地产 0.721 347
2 鼎尖软件 1.442 695 7 云峰资金 0.716 535
3 乐视 0.910 239 8 红杉资本 0.716 535
4 Koenigsegg 0.721 347 9 碧桂园 0.716 535
5 绿地香港 0.721 347 10 万科 0.716 535
Top10 Entities of Intimacy Based on Link Prediction Algorithm
E a E b T a T b
中国恒大7月3日以2.865亿港元回购1410万股股份。 中国恒大7月5日耗资8.35亿港元回购
4035.1万股，为连续第三日回购股份。		 2018-7-3 2018-7-5 γ E E C C 1
T C D I 0.819
E I C S 1
S i m 0.798
E V I 0.046
E v o _ s c o r e 0.865
贾跃亭发难背后：死也不会放手FF控制权。 【争夺乐视汽车控制权：恒大方面未派时守明出任董事】恒大健康步步紧逼下，贾跃亭还是一直友好交涉，试图通过谈判解决，但一直效果不佳，没办法之后只有进行仲裁。 2018-10-7 2018-10-8 γ E E C C 0.800
T C D I 0.905
E I C S 0.600
S i m 0.440
E V I 0.149
E v o _ s c o r e 0.493
中国恒大在港交所公告，目前建议重组交易之工作尚在有序进行中，凯隆置业及恒大地产于2018年12月28日与深投控及深深房签订对合作协议之进一步补充协议。 中国恒大集团发布有关与深深房的建议重组合作协议之进一步公告：凯隆置业及恒大地产于3月13日与深投控及深深房签订对合作协议之进一步补充协议，将合作协议内之排他性及协议有效期从3月31日进一步延申至12月31日。 2018-12-28 2019-3-13 γ E E C C 1
T C D I 0.006
E I C S 0.500
S i m 0.711
E V I 3.46× 10 - 7
E v o _ s c o r e 0.641
2021年8月19日，央行、银保监局相关部门负责同志约谈恒大集团高管，要求努力保持经营稳定，积极化解债务风险，维护房地产和金融稳定。 2021年8月20日凌晨，恒大发布声明称恒大集团接受了人民银行、银保监会的约谈。恒大集团将全面落实约谈要求，……，以最大决心、最大力度保持公司经营稳定，化解债务风险，维护房地产市场和金融稳定。 2021-8-19 2021-8-20 γ E E C C 1
T C D I 0.905
E I C S 0.750
S i m 0.424
E V I 0.002
E v o _ s c o r e 0.533
据港交所披露文件：在完成出售事项后，10月18日，中国恒大董事局主席许家印在盛京银行的持股比例从49.59%下降至19.85%。 据港交所文件：11月12日，中国恒大对恒大汽车的持股比例从66.77%降至64.98%。 2021-11-16 2021-12-8 γ E E C C 1
T C D I 0.301
E I C S 0.300
S i m 0.670
E V I 0.367
E v o _ s c o r e 0.547
中国恒大公告，考虑到本集团目前面临的经营上和财务上的挑战，本公司董事会决议设立中国恒大集团风险化解委员会。其中，许家印任风险化解委员会主席。 中国恒大港交所公告，针对本集团目前面临的风险，中国恒大集团风险化解委员会正调动广泛资源，并将积极与债权人保持沟通，努力化解集团风险，维护各方合法权益。 2021-12-6 2021-12-22 γ E E C C 1
T C D I 0.202
E I C S 0.800
S i m 0.639
E V I 0.001
E v o _ s c o r e 0.692
Related Indicators of Risk Events of Evergrande Group （Part）
Real Evolution Graph of Evergrande Group Risk Events Based on Manual Labeling
Precision and Recall under Different Evolutionary Strength Thresholds
演化分支 时间跨度 核心事件 事件数
1 2018.10.22-2021.9.17 恒大销售额下降 58
2 2018.8.28-2020.9.24 恒大并购重组 6
3 2020.9.24-2021.12.8 恒大股权变更 8
4 2021.6.1-2021.12.6 恒大债务危机 79
5 2020.8.20-2021.9.18 恒大增发/兑付票据 16
6 2018.7.3-2020.6.1 恒大回购 14
Evolutionary Branches of Risk Events of Evergrande Group
Risk Event Evolution Graph of Evergrande Group When λ=0.2
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