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数据分析与知识发现  2019, Vol. 3 Issue (8): 21-29    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0904
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
专利技术系统演化的技术熵测度模型与实证研究 *
侯剑华1,3(),刘盼2,3
1中山大学资讯管理学院 广州 510006
2大连大学经济管理学院 大连 116622
3辽宁省跨境电商与数据科学重点实验室 大连 116622
Measuring Tech-Entropy of System Evolution: An Empirical Study of Patents
Jianhua Hou1,3(),Pan Liu2,3
1School of Information Management, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
2School of Economics and Management, Dalian University, Dalian 116622, China
3Key Laboratory of Cross Border Electricity and Data Science in Liaoning Province, Dalian 116622, China
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摘要 

【目的】利用改进后的技术熵方法, 对技术系统生命周期演化的发展阶段进行测度分析, 为企业技术发展预测与政府进一步决策提供理论依据。【方法】在专利技术系统中, 构建以信息熵为基础, 综合多变量指标的技术熵测度模型。【结果】对中国碳捕集技术进行实证分析, 其经历了技术引入、缓慢成长、快速成长等阶段, 目前处于技术生命周期的快速成长阶段。【局限】样本数据的选择有待改进, 存在干扰数据。【结论】改进后的技术熵方法是一种对专利技术系统中技术领域演化趋势分析的科学有效方法, 为专利技术生命周期演化的识别与预测等问题提供了一种可行的分析手段。

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侯剑华
刘盼
关键词 技术熵技术生命周期专利技术演化技术系统    
Abstract

[Objective] This paper measures the developments and the life cycles of the technology system with an improved technology entropy method, aiming to provide theoretical foundation for predicting technology development and decision-making of the governments. [Methods] We constructed a model measuring technological entropy based on information entropy and multiple indicators for the patented technology system. Then, we conducted an empirical analysis with the new model for carbon capture technology in China. [Results] We found that the target technology concluded the stages of sprouting, and slow growth. It is currently in the stage of rapid growth. [Limitations] The quality of the sample data needs to be improved. [Conclusions] The proposed method is an effective way to analyze the evolution trends of patent technology system, which provides a better solution for identifying the life cycle of technologies.

Key wordsTechnological Entropy    Technology Life Cycle    Evolution of Patented Technology    Technology Systems
收稿日期: 2018-08-25     
中图分类号:  TP393 G35  
基金资助:*本文系国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘基于科学的创新’驱动新兴技术生成的机理及其促进政策研究”的研究成果之一(17BGL031)
通讯作者: 侯剑华     E-mail: houjh5@mail.sysu.edu.cn
引用本文:   
侯剑华,刘盼. 专利技术系统演化的技术熵测度模型与实证研究 *[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(8): 21-29.
Jianhua Hou,Pan Liu. Measuring Tech-Entropy of System Evolution: An Empirical Study of Patents. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, DOI:10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0904.
链接本文:  
http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0904
类别 数量
专利总量 6 710
发明申请 3 877
发明授权 1 545
实用新型 1 280
外观设计 8
转化量(转让和许可) 523
表1  专利数量信息表
图1  碳捕集相关专利的公开公告数量趋势(1985年-2017年)
时间 每年专利
总量N
同族专利数量Np 专利授权
Ap
专利转化量Tp p1j p2j p3j Ht(X) Ht(Y) Ht(Z) L
1985 0 0 0 0
1986 8 3 0 0 0.3750 0.0000 0.0000 0.5306 0.5306
1987 15 2 3 0 0.1333 0.2000 0.0000 0.3876 0.4644 0.8520
1988 10 4 6 0 0.4000 0.6000 0.0000 0.5288 0.4422 0.9710
1989 13 7 6 0 0.5385 0.4615 0.0000 0.4808 0.5149 0.9957
1990 11 7 7 0 0.6364 0.6364 0.0000 0.4149 0.4149 0.8298
1991 11 5 5 0 0.4545 0.4545 0.0000 0.5171 0.5171 1.0342
1992 15 4 9 0 0.2667 0.6000 0.0000 0.5085 0.4422 0.9506
1993 10 2 3 0 0.2000 0.3000 0.0000 0.4644 0.5211 0.9855
1994 14 2 8 0 0.1429 0.5714 0.0000 0.4010 0.4614 0.8624
1995 15 3 6 0 0.2000 0.4000 0.0000 0.4644 0.5288 0.9932
1996 24 13 8 0 0.5417 0.3333 0.0000 0.4791 0.5284 1.0074
1997 19 9 4 1 0.4737 0.2105 0.0526 0.5106 0.4733 0.2236 1.2075
1998 21 6 4 0 0.2857 0.1905 0.0000 0.4963 0.4423 0.9385
1999 34 17 10 0 0.5000 0.2941 0.0000 0.5000 0.5193 1.0193
2000 47 24 13 9 0.5106 0.2766 0.1915 0.4952 0.5128 0.4566 1.4646
2001 33 13 16 2 0.3939 0.4848 0.0606 0.5295 0.5064 0.2451 1.2811
2002 62 24 24 2 0.3871 0.3871 0.0323 0.5300 0.5300 0.1598 1.2198
2003 71 26 34 5 0.3662 0.4789 0.0704 0.5307 0.5087 0.2696 1.3090
2004 85 21 41 12 0.2471 0.4824 0.1412 0.4983 0.5073 0.3987 1.4043
2005 119 42 57 14 0.3529 0.4790 0.1176 0.5304 0.5086 0.3633 1.4023
2006 121 40 50 21 0.3306 0.4132 0.1736 0.5279 0.5269 0.4384 1.4932
2007 122 29 45 15 0.2377 0.3689 0.1230 0.4927 0.5307 0.3717 1.3951
2008 207 44 76 29 0.2126 0.3671 0.1401 0.4748 0.5308 0.3972 1.4029
2009 254 63 89 18 0.2480 0.3504 0.0709 0.4989 0.5301 0.2706 1.2996
2010 323 51 115 33 0.1579 0.3560 0.1022 0.4197 0.5289 0.3358 1.2844
2011 408 82 157 35 0.2010 0.3848 0.0858 0.4652 0.5302 0.3039 1.2993
2012 575 140 222 58 0.2435 0.3861 0.1009 0.4951 0.5282 0.3333 1.3566
2013 599 109 280 62 0.1820 0.4674 0.1035 0.4468 0.5118 0.3384 1.2970
2014 725 141 311 51 0.1945 0.4290 0.0703 0.4594 0.5237 0.2694 1.2526
2015 830 124 385 74 0.1494 0.4639 0.0892 0.4098 0.5140 0.3109 1.2346
2016 888 139 431 43 0.1565 0.4854 0.0484 0.4188 0.5061 0.2116 1.1365
2017 1 021 90 408 24 0.0881 0.3996 0.0235 0.3089 0.5288 0.1272 0.9650
表2  碳捕集专利技术熵测度计算结果
图2  碳捕集相关专利的公开公告累计数量趋势(1985年-2017年)
图3  历年碳捕集相关专利的总的熵值波动图
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