Please wait a minute...
Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (10): 27-36    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0763
Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis of Civil Aviation Security with Risk Ranking and Decision Tree
Wen’gang Feng1,2,3(),Yan Li4,Fuhai Li4,Xin Wang1,2,Xiping Zhou1,2
1School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
2Research Centre for Civil Aviation Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
3Police Science Postdoctoral Research Station, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
4Public Security Bureau, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Beijing 100710, China
Download: PDF(740 KB)   HTML ( 1
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
Abstract  

[Objective] This paper conducts risk assessment and decision-making analysis of civil aviation, aiming to address the security challenges facing this industry. [Methods] Based on the risk assessment results of civil aviation, we built the decision tree for civil aviation counter-terrorism, which examined the probabilities, deterrence effect, substitution effect, effectiveness of countermeasures and consequences of the potential civil aviation terrotist attacks. [Results] We evaluated the effects of various countermeasures based on the analysis of the potential terrorist attack threats. [Limitations] Only examined the proposed model with terrorist incidents happened in the past, which is difficult to measure future events. [Conclusions] This paper studies the attributes of possible terrorist attacks against the civil aviation system, including their probabilities, countermeasures, and the consequences.

Key wordsCivil Aviation Security      Terrorism Risk      Risk Assessment      Decision Analysis     
Received: 09 July 2018      Published: 12 November 2018

Cite this article:

Wen’gang Feng,Yan Li,Fuhai Li,Xin Wang,Xiping Zhou. Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis of Civil Aviation Security with Risk Ranking and Decision Tree. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018, 2(10): 27-36.

URL:

http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0763     OR     http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2018/V2/I10/27

[1] Rozell D J.A Cautionary Note on Qualitative Risk Ranking of Homeland Security Threats[J]. Homeland Security Affairs, 2015, 11: 238-249.
[2] US Department of Homeland Security. DHS Budget-in-Brief FY 2013[R]. 2013.
[3] Bedford T, Cooke R.Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[4] National Research Council.Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change[M]. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2008.
[5] Parnell G S, Smith C M, Moxley F I.Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model[J]. Risk Analysis, 2010, 30(1): 32-48.
[6] Merrick J, Parnell G.A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management[J]. Risk Analysis, 2011, 31(9):1488-1510.
[7] Aven T, Guikema S.On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 2015, 35(12):2162-2171.
[8] Aven T, Renn O.The Role of Quantitative Risk Assessments for Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty and Delineating Appropriate Risk Management Options with Special Emphasis on Terrorism Risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 2009, 29(4): 587-600.
[9] Willis H H.Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 2007, 27(3):597-606.
[10] Kumamoto H, Henley E J.Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists[M]. New York: IEEE Press, 1996.
[11] Aven T.On the New ISO Guide on Risk Management Terminology[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011, 96(7): 719-726.
[12] Morgan M G.Categorizing Risks for Risk Ranking[J]. Risk Analysis, 2001, 20(1): 49-58.
[13] Willis H H, Moore M.Improving the Value of Analysis for Biosurveillance[J]. Decision Analysis, 2013, 11(1): 63-81.
[14] Willis H H, Gibson J M, Shih R A, et al.Prioritizing Environmental Health Risks in the UAE[J]. Risk Analysis, 2010, 30(12): 1842-1856.
[15] Tambe M.Security and Game Theory: Algorithms, Deployed Systems, Lessons Learned[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2011.
[16] Clemen R, Reilly T.Making Hard Decisions[M]. South-Western College Pub, 2013.
[17] Lundberg R, Willis H H.Deliberative Risk Ranking to Inform Homeland Security Strategic Planning[J]. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2016, 13(1):1515-1530.
[18] Department of Homeland Security,Building A Resilient Nation,Mission 2013[EB/OL]. [2018-06-15].
[19] Lundberg R.Comparing Homeland Security Risks Using a Deliberative Risk Ranking Methodology[R]. UMI Number: 3575486. 2013.
[20] Howard R A, Abbas A E.Foundations of Decision Analysis[M]. New York: Pearson, 2015.
[21] Keeney R L, Winterfeldt V D.Practical Value Models Advances in Decision Analysis[M]. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[22] Ezell B C.Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 2010, 30(4): 575-589.
[1] Minghui Liu. Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Terrorism Based on K-means Clustering[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(10): 21-26.
[2] Wengang Feng,Jing Huang. Early Warning for Civil Aviation Security Checks Based on Deep Learning[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(10): 46-53.
[3] Huang Shuiqing Mao Yihong Xiong Jian. Assessment of Information Security Risk in Digital Libraries[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2010, 26(7/8): 33-38.
[4] Huang Shuiqing,Chen Shuangxi,Ren Ni. Research of Risk Assessment Model of Digital Library Information Security Based on ISO27001[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2009, 25(6): 44-49.
[5] DAVID PEARSON. AONS II: Continuing the Trend Towards Preservation Software ‘Nirvana’[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2008, 24(1): 42-49.
[6] Li Hui,Liu Dongsu,Wang Yu . A Security Management Framework for E-commerce Based on OWL[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2006, 1(11): 69-72.
  Copyright © 2016 Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery   Tel/Fax:(010)82626611-6626,82624938   E-mail:jishu@mail.las.ac.cn