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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (10): 21-26    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0768
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Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Terrorism Based on K-means Clustering
Minghui Liu()
School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
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Abstract  

[Objective]This paper tries to assess the terrorism risks facing civil aviation industry quantitatively and objectively. [Methods] We proposed a risk assessment model based on K-means clustering, and then examined it with the data of terrorist attacks from 1992 to 2015. We calculated the risk of different types of attacks and their targets objectively. [Results] The risk of aircraft bombing, armed assault against the airport and airline staff were the highest, the risk of hijacking, bombing/explosion aginst the airport or airline staff were at medium level, and the risk of other attacks were relatively low. We used this method to predict the risk of terrorist attacks against the civil aviation in 2016, and the prediction accuracy was up to 92.3%. [Limitations] The proposed method for risk assessment is only suitable for processing numerical data. [Conclusions] The K-means clustering method can assess risk based on statistical data without human intervention, which could be applied to similar studies.

Key wordsK-means      Clustering      Aviation System      Risk Assessment     
Received: 15 July 2018      Published: 12 November 2018

Cite this article:

Minghui Liu. Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Terrorism Based on K-means Clustering. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018, 2(10): 21-26.

URL:

http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0768     OR     http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2018/V2/I10/21

袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员 总计
武装袭击 20 24 8 54
暗杀 1 2 4 7
爆炸 27 236 27 290
基础设施攻击 1 12 8 21
劫机 106 1 - 107
劫持人质 1 2 - 3
绑架 3 4 2 9
徒手攻击 1 1 2
其他 3 8 4 15
合计 162 290 54 508
袭击手段 死亡人数 受伤人数
飞机 机场 民航
工作人员
飞机 机场 民航
工作人员
武装袭击 9 117 9 26 44 12
暗杀 0 0 3 2 0 2
爆炸 635 266 0 25 780 0
基础设施攻击 0 1 0 0 13 0
劫机 60 0 0 19 0 0
劫持人质 123 1 0 0 2 0
绑架 0 12 0 0 1 0
其他 2 11 0 0 15 0
合计 829 408 12 72 855 14
xi(j) j=1 j=2 j=3
i=1 0.1235 0.0109 0.3611
i=2 0.0062 0.0000 0.0278
i=3 0.1667 0.7660 0.3472
i=4 0.0062 0.0000 0.0000
i=5 0.6543 0.0724 0.2639
i=6 0.0062 0.1484 0.0000
i=7 0.0185 0.0000 0.0000
i=8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
武装
袭击
暗杀 爆炸 基础
设施攻击
劫机 劫持
人质
绑架 徒手
攻击
袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员
武装袭击
暗杀
爆炸
基础设施攻击
劫机
劫持人质
绑架
徒手攻击
袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员
武装袭击
暗杀
爆炸
基础设施攻击
劫机
劫持人质
绑架
徒手攻击
其他
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