|
|
|
| Predicting Repeat Purchase Intention of New Consumers |
Zhang Liyi( ), Li Yiran, Wen Xuan |
| School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract [Objective] This paper compares the prediction accuracy and efficiency of different machine learning algorithms, aiming to identify new consumers with repeat purchase intentions. It also provides a theoretical framework for customer classification. [Methods] First, we collected the server logs of a dealer on Taobao.com from 2015 to 2018, as well as its orders and consumers’ personal information. And then, we used different algorithms to train the proposed models. [Results] The SMOTE algorithm combined with the random forest algorithm obtained the highest prediction accuracy of 96%. [Limitations] The sample data size needs to be expanded. [Conclusions] The fusion algorithm based on SMOTE and random forest has better performance in predicting repurchase intentions of new consumers.
|
|
Received: 26 July 2018
Published: 11 December 2018
|
|
|
| [1] |
陈璐. 阿里巴巴多元化战略分析[J]. 商业经济, 2017(4): 77-79.
|
| [1] |
(Chen Lu.Analysis of Diversification Strategy in Alibaba[J]. Business Economy, 2017(4): 77-79.)
|
| [2] |
Schmittlein D C, Morrison D G, Colombo R.Counting Your Customers: Who are They and What will They Do Next?[J]. Management Science, 1987, 33(1): 1-24.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.33.1.1
|
| [3] |
刘帆. 客户分析与统计建模[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学, 2014.
|
| [3] |
(Liu Fan.Statistical Models for Customer-base Analysis[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China, 2014.)
|
| [4] |
李美其, 齐佳音. 基于购买行为及评论行为的用户购买预测研究[J]. 北京邮电大学学报: 社会科学版, 2016, 18(4): 18-25.
|
| [4] |
(Li Meiqi, Qi Jiayin.Customer Purchase Prediction Based on Buying Behavior and Comment Behavior[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications: Social Science Edition, 2016, 18(4): 18-25.)
|
| [5] |
马少辉, 刘金兰. Pareto/NBD模型实证与应用研究[J]. 管理科学, 2006, 19(5): 45-49.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-0334.2006.05.007
|
| [5] |
(Ma Shaohui, Liu Jinlan.Empirical Study on Pareto/NBD Model and Its Applications[J]. Management Sciences in China, 2006, 19(5): 45-49.)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-0334.2006.05.007
|
| [6] |
陈洁, 谢文昕, 杨升荣. 在线渠道消费者动态品牌选择购买率预测[J]. 工业工程与管理, 2011, 16(3): 52-56.
|
| [6] |
(Chen Jie, Xie Wenxin, Yang Shengrong.Forecasting the Purchase Rate of Online Consumer’s Dynamic Brand Choice[J]. Industrial Engineering and Management, 2011, 16(3): 52-56.)
|
| [7] |
舒方, 马少辉. 客户重复购买的组合预测方法[J]. 计算机与现代化, 2015(5): 67-70.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2015.05.014
|
| [7] |
(Shu Fang, Ma Shaohui.A Composition Forecasting Approach of Customer Repeat Purchasing[J]. Computer and Modernization, 2015(5): 67-70.)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2015.05.014
|
| [8] |
Marshall P.A Simple Heuristic for Obtaining Pareto/NBD Parameter Estimates[J]. Marketing Letters, 2015, 26(2): 165-173.
doi: 10.1007/s11002-013-9272-z
|
| [9] |
Van Oest R, Knox G.Erratum to: Extending the BG/NBD: A Simple Model of Purchases and Complaints[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 2011, 28(3): 280.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2011.08.001
|
| [10] |
马宝龙, 李金林, 李纯青, 等. 回报计划对重复购买行为模式的影响研究[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2007, 26(3): 457-467.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1566.2007.03.013
|
| [10] |
(Ma Baolong, Li Jinlin, Li Chunqing, et al.Effect of Reward Programs on Repeat-purchase Behavior Patterns[J]. Application of Statistics & Management, 2007, 26(3): 457-467.)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1566.2007.03.013
|
| [11] |
吴国华, 潘德惠. 顾客购买行为影响因素分析及重购概率的预测[J]. 管理工程学报, 2005, 19(1): 104-107.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-6062.2005.01.023
|
| [11] |
(Wu Guohua, Pan Dehui.Analyzing the Main Elements of Customer Purchase Behavior and Predicting the Probability of Customer Repurchase[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering & Engineering Management, 2005, 19(1): 104-107.)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-6062.2005.01.023
|
| [12] |
Tapiero C S.The NBD Repeat Purchase Process and M / G /∞ Queues[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2000, 63(2): 141-145.
doi: 10.1016/S0925-5273(98)00254-0
|
| [13] |
Jacobs B J D, Donkers B, Fok D. Model-based Purchase Predictions for Large Assortments[J]. Marketing Science, 2018, 35(3): 389-404.
doi: 10.1287/mksc.2016.0985
|
| [14] |
王福华, 乔忠, 刘巍. 重复与经常购买的产品生命周期模型的参数估计[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2004(8): 55-61.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3894.2004.08.008
|
| [14] |
(Wang Fuhua, Qiao Zhong, Liu Wei.Parameter Estimations for Life Cycle Models of Repetitive and Frequent Purchased Product[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2004(8): 55-61.)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3894.2004.08.008
|
| [15] |
叶作亮, 王雪乔, 宝智红, 等. C2C环境中顾客重复购买行为的实证与建模[J]. 管理科学学报, 2011, 14(12): 71-78.
|
| [15] |
(Ye Zuoliang, Wang Xueqiao, Bao Zhihong, et al.Modeling and Empirical Research of Repeat Purchase Behavior in C2C Ecommerce[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2011, 14(12): 71-78.)
|
| [16] |
Hughes A M.Boosting Response with RFM[J]. Marketing Tools, 1996, 3(3): 4.
|
| [17] |
张宁, 范崇睿, 张岩. 一种基于RFM模型的新型协同过滤个性化推荐算法[J]. 电信科学, 2015, 31(9): 103-111.
doi: 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2015180
|
| [17] |
(Zhang Ning, Fan Chongrui, Zhang Yan.A Novel Personalized Recommendation Algorithm of Collaborative Filtering Based on RFM Model[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2015, 31(9): 103-111.)
doi: 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2015180
|
| [18] |
Reimer K, Albers S. Modeling Repeat Purchases in the Internet When RFM Captures Past Influence of Marketing[OL]. Econstor Preprints, 2011. .
|
| [19] |
Yeh I, Yang K J, Ting T M.Knowledge Discovery on RFM Model Using Bernoulli Sequence[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, 36(3): 5866-5871.
doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.07.018
|
| [20] |
王萍. 运用数据挖掘技术预测客户购买倾向——方法与实证研究[J]. 情报科学, 2005, 23(5): 738-741.
|
| [20] |
(Wang Ping.Forecasting Customer Purchase Trend Based on Data Mining Technology——Method and Case Study[J]. Information Science, 2005, 23(5): 738-741.)
|
| [21] |
祝歆, 刘潇蔓, 陈树广, 等. 基于机器学习融合算法的网络购买行为预测研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2017, 32(12): 94-100.
|
| [21] |
(Zhu Xin, Liu Xiaoman, Chen Shuguang, et al.Research on Network Purchase Behavior Prediction Based on Machine Learning Fusion Algorithm[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2017, 32(12): 94-100.)
|
| [22] |
Zhao Y, Yao L, Zhang Y.Purchase Prediction Using TMall-specific Features[J]. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 2016, 28(14): 3879-3894.
doi: 10.1002/cpe.3720
|
| [23] |
王克利, 邓飞其. 基于阿里巴巴大数据重复购买预测的实证研究[J]. 时代金融, 2018(1): 237-239.
|
| [23] |
(Wang Keli, Deng Feiqi.An Empirical Study of Repeat Purchase Forecast-Based on Big Data from Alibaba[J]. Times Finance, 2018(1): 237-239.)
|
| [24] |
Pazzani M J, Merz C J, Murphy P M, et al.Reducing Misclassification Costs[C]// Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Machine Learning. 1994: 217-225.
|
| [25] |
Kubat M, Matwin S.Addressing the Curse of Imbalanced Training Sets: One-Sided Selection[C]// Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Machine Learning. 1997: 179-186.
|
| [26] |
Japkowicz N.The Class Imbalance Problem: Significance and Strategies[C]//Proceedings of the 2000 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence. 2000: 111-117.
|
| [27] |
Ling C, Li C.Data Mining for Direct Marketing: Problems and Solutions[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. 1998.
|
| [28] |
Chawla N V, Bowyer K W, Hall L O, et al.SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique[J]. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2002, 16(1): 321-357.
doi: 10.1613/jair.953
|
| [29] |
Breiman L.Random Forests[J]. Machine Learning, 2001, 45(1): 5-32.
doi: 10.1023/A:1010933404324
|
| [30] |
武前波, 王圣云. 商业地产开发视角下的中国城市评估体系[J]. 中国名城, 2017(7): 17-25.
|
| [30] |
(Wu Qianbo, Wang Shengyun.China’s Urban Assessment System from the Perspective of Commercial Real Estate Development[J]. China Ancient City, 2017(7): 17-25.)
|
| [31] |
Sokolova M, Japkowicz N, Szpakowicz S. Beyond Accuracy, F-Score and ROC: A Family of Discriminant Measures for Performance Evaluation[A]// AI 2006: Advances in Artificial Intelligence[M]. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2006: 1015-1021.
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
