Please wait a minute...
Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2020, Vol. 4 Issue (9): 1-14    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2020.0625
Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
Methods and Applications for Technology Roadmap
Wei Ling1,Li Shuying2,Fang Shu2()
1College of Information, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
2Chengdu Library and Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
Download: PDF (862 KB)   HTML ( 12
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
Abstract  

[Objective] This study systematically reviews the methods and applications for technology roadmap (TRM), aiming to analyze future research and application trends.[Coverage] We retrieved 285 articles published between 2004 and 2020 from the Web of Science Core Database.Among them, we selected 76 representative literature for the study.[Methods] We reviewed the history and concepts of TRM, and introduced related research methods and tools, formulation and implementation processes, current applications and future trends.[Results] The research and development methods as well as TRM tools could be divided into three categories.The development ideas and implementation guidelines of TRM were clear.TRM was widely used by enterprises, networks, industries and governments.[Limitations] There were more classic literature and important reports, than those published in recent two years.[Conclusions] China should strengthen the TRM’s theoretical research and optimize its formulation process.The government should also promote the research and applications of TRM as well as training of TRM professionals.

Key wordsTechnology Roadmap      Technology Innovation      Methods and Tools     
Received: 01 June 2020      Published: 22 July 2020
ZTFLH:  G306  
Corresponding Authors: Fang Shu     E-mail: fangsh@clas.ac.cn

Cite this article:

Wei Ling,Li Shuying,Fang Shu. Methods and Applications for Technology Roadmap. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2020, 4(9): 1-14.

URL:

http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2020.0625     OR     http://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2020/V4/I9/1

类型 市场分析类 技术分析类 支持类
应用 技术路线图的顶层 技术路线图的底层 技术路线图的制定
功能 调查组织要求和需求;
分析组织内部产品和服务要素;
分析组织外面宏观环境
预测、度量及知识技能映射 处理研讨会期间收集的定量和定性数据;
协助制定和实施技术路线图流程
方法\
工具
经验曲线、产品概念构想(Product Concept Visioning)、场景构建(Scenario Building)、波特五力模型、SWOT分析、STEEP分析 文本挖掘、形态分析(Morphology Analysis, MA)法、文献计量法、专利分析、技术开发封套(Technology Development Envelope,TDE)、层次分析法 质量功能部署(Quality Function Deployment,QFD)、创新矩阵、德尔菲-情景编写、政策模拟法、矩阵评分法、情景规划、变革管理、I-系统法
Technology Roadmap’s Methods and Tools
Technology Roadmap’s Development Flow in Canada
Technology Roadmap’s Implementation Process
机构 特点 重要贡献 主要观点
摩托罗拉(Motorola)[50,51] 高度可信的管理工具 提出主要步骤:(1)业务描述:包括市场预期和竞争环境;(2)技术预测:未来产品的性能水平趋势和潜在特性;(3)技术路线图矩阵构建;(4)质量考虑;(5)资源配置:工程和财务;(6)专利组合;(7)产品描述、现状报告和总结图表;(8)未来报告。 (1)在提出未来愿景的同时,吸引企业和政府的资源,鼓励早期针对性的调查、监控整个创新过程;(2)使战略目标保持一致的工具,关联整个从研究到产品的价值链,体现了业务场景下长期决策的选择,通过“滚动”规划更详细、精确地进行决策,以提升技术管理能力。
英国石油公司(BP)[42] 可视化形式是技术路线图的关键 逻辑分析、广泛咨询和讨论以及图形技术的使用。 (1)强调多方共同参与、促进达成共识;(2)解决并整合了商业和技术问题,展示两者的关系;(3)“自上而下”(开发使商业成功的技术)和“自下而上”(从业务中获取技术任务)两种模式必不可少。
飞利浦(Philips)[5,31] “市场-产品-技术”三层技术路线图结构 最早使用“市场拉动(Market Pull)”和“技术推动(Technology Push)”概念;提出两次研讨会的方式构建技术路线图。 (1)构建产品技术路线图需同时考虑市场拉动、技术推动以及两者之间相互作用;(2)第一个研讨会用于共享信息,帮助参与者建立一个普遍印象,第二个研讨会讨论实际路线图。
朗讯技术(Lucent)[52] 以产品线为中心的公司技术规划、制定基于风险的路线图 组成部分:(1)市场部分:竞争力评估、市场细分和趋势;(2)产品部分:产品驱动、经验曲线预测、产品路线图和产品发展计划;(3)技术部分:技术路线图(产品/制造)和成本预测模型;(4)总结/行动计划:战略、行动策略和风险路线图。 (1)“组合”透镜(Portfolio Lens):识别出单个开发项目或技术需满足的共同需求、重用机会、交叉、隐藏的差距、弱点以及关键优势;(2)将技术重要性(现在和未来:低/中/高)与组织的竞争地位(现在和未来:落后或引领)进行比较;(3)路线图强调了实施过程中需要监控的主要风险事件以及成功执行的阻止因素。
Technology Roadmap’s Applications at Enterprise Level
机构 特点 重要贡献 主要观点
波音(Boeing)、通用汽车(GE)[54] 供应链合作 利用其主要供应商的材料和电子知识,共同创造创新的解决方案。 (1)供应网络内开发新产品或服务,协作不仅能提高活动的效率,还能通过消除冗余节省时间和资源;(2)协作可以产生解决问题的新方法;(3)协作发生在供应网络内的公司寻求建立目标,明确需要的行动和配合行动的时间与网络的共同目标。
三家公司的设计师、制造商和材料专家的合作创新解决方案 由GM供应商开发新材料转化为解决方案,并获得2010年塑料最具创新性使用奖。
摩托罗拉(Motorola)[55] 为电池供应商提供额外资金建造模具 协同创新互动:摩托罗拉分享生产需求,鼓励创造设计、降低成本。 (1)互动最简单的形式是协调,即协调多个个体之间、群体或公司之间的任务;(2)避免工作分配的空白和交叉,实现供应链输出的有效转移;(3)协调是管理为实现既定目标而进行的活动之间相互依赖的行为。
苹果公司、Facebook[56,57] 合作互动走向开放创新 为开发者提供利用该平台推出自己创新和产品的机会、新的技术和商业模式的结合创造更高的客户价值。 供应网络背景下,复杂自适应系统的反馈是区分协作与合作的明显因素。
Technology Roadmap’s Applications at Enterprise Networks Level
机构 特点 重要贡献 主要观点
加拿大工业局(Industry Canada)[46] 在公共部门和私营部门组织之间形成动态的伙伴关系 联合资助完成39份技术路线图,涉及2 700多个公司、200家非工业伙伴(大学、研究机构和协会)。 (1)通过帮助工业识别和开发成功所必需的创新技术来增强竞争力;(2)通过鼓励对话和收集有价值的信息,制定技术路线图过程鼓励这些伙伴关系,并帮助建立工业和政府的规划优先事项。
欧洲工业研究管理协会(EIRMA)[4] 8阶段技术路线图方法 在飞利浦“市场-产品-技术”结构基础上,制定通用多层路线图框架;提出前向回顾(Backwards)和后向展望(Forwards)的方法。 (1)多层路线图包括外部影响、可交付成果(产品或创新过程的理想需求、性能特点)、技术、技能/科学/技巧,和资源(即知识、实物和金融资产);(2)前向回顾:找到如何达到既定目标的路径(可能是商业目标、产品、流程、满足法律要求或技术);(3)后向展望:尝试评估特定技术的潜力以及它为满足未来需求而启动的可能性。
半导体行业协会(SIA)[60,61] 发布首个国际半导体技术路线图(ITRS) 首次尝试利用研讨会探讨工业路线图实践,得到来自产业、大学、研究联盟、政府机构和实验室的广泛参与;由政府资助变成行业主导。 (1)ITRS的主要目标是在15年时间窗内获取并呈现行业研发需求;(2)强调技术路线图向两个不同的受众传达短期(横向6年供应商)和长期(纵向6~15年研究)需求。
岳光溪等[62] 中国煤炭清洁燃烧技术路线图 重点围绕6类煤炭清洁燃烧技术发展的战略思路和目标、国内外技术现状、未来技术方向、重点领域和关键技术等问题进行了初步探讨。 分阶段推进各类关键技术的科技攻关、示范推广和产业化。
孟凡生等[63] 中国新能源装备智造化发展技术路线图 运用词频分析与TOPSIS 相结合的分析方法确定新能源装备关键智造化技术,引入技术预见方法分析,构建新能源装备智造化指标体系。 以技术路线图绘制三项智造化技术在智能制造进程中的发展脉络,为新能源装备制造领域未来工艺流程、产品服务以及运营管理的智能转型提供了参考与借鉴。
杜祥琬等[64] 核能技术方向研究及发展路线图 制定近中期、中长期和长远目标,凝练出未来创新型技术、前瞻性技术和颠覆性技术;包括前瞻研究、科技攻关、示范推广以及产业化4个模块。 采取专题调研、交叉讨论、系统综合方法,分析了核能技术发展的现状、我国核能的安全性、核能技术的发展方向和技术发展路线图。
李欣等[65] 新兴技术未来产业 基于文献计量、专利分析和技术路线图的新兴技术产业未来发展分析框架。 以染料敏化太阳能光伏技术产业为例,研究新兴产业技术领域的技术现状和未来发展趋势,包括未来发展路径、影响因素以及相互之间的变化关系。
Technology Roadmap’s Applications at Industry Level
机构 特点 重要贡献 主要观点
NASA[67] 技术路线图最早的使用者 利用研讨会进行部署,参与者需完成的任务:(1)确定技术需求和机会(未来任务/系统);(2)列举主要技术领域/主题;(3)探索哪些技术可用于未来实验等。 (1)技术路线图的设计中,“窗口”的概念经常用于时间维度下市场拉动和技术推动;(2)技术路线图实际上是产品发布时间表;(3)技术路线图中存在大量可以被应用/采纳/适应的整套知识;(4)NASA将路线图应用在软件系统和程序中。
日本内阁府空间政策委员会[68] 结合日本宇宙航空研究开发机构(JAXA)相关专家意见,制定新的空间科学和探索路线图 空间科学技术;发展路线图。 (1)推动空间科学和探索发展的原则,包括天文学和空间物理、太阳系探测、空间工程三大领域的发展构想等;(2)涉及领域整体目标、未来20年发展战略、未来5年计划项目。
韩国工业技术评价与规划研究所[69] 基于国家层面未来愿景的各具体技术领域的微观技术路线图的集合 支持国家层面的技术战略和规划,还将市场机会与公司层面的产品和技术联系起来。 (1)明确未来10年科技发展的愿景、关键技术以及国家层次上推进的战略研发项目;(2)确定关键技术和主要产业,绘制各个分技术领域的路线图,从而构成国家技术路线图。
澳大利亚皇家海军国防部[70] 协调目标和行动:决定和描述可行的最佳行动方案 描述并传达战略计划:(1)资金问题:需要在军队的运作需要和政府的预算限制之间进行权衡;(2)需求问题:需要在政府的预算限制和工业技术可用性之间进行权衡;(3)成熟度问题:需要在军事操作需求和工业技术可用性之间进行权衡。 (1)宏观层面三个利益相关者:政府(国防部)、军队(用户)和工业(产品服务技术的提供者);(2)市场拉动角度,关键驱动因素是军事力量的变化;技术推动角度,关键驱动因素是技术发展的速度。
《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020)》[71] “国家目标-战略任务-关键技术-发展重点”分析框架 宏观层面的预测与规划,涉及整个科学技术领域,主要采用定性的方法和工具。 (1)集成专家意见的技术预测调查;(2)基于早前按科技领域进行的技术预测调查;(3)明确每项战略任务的发展重点、优先序、实现时间和发展路径等[72]
国家科技部 区域重点产业技术路线图[73] 组织上海、北京、天津、广东等8个省市开展产业技术路线图编制。 以广东省产业技术路线图为例[74]:(1)由政府、科研、企业代表参与,开展“市场需求-产业目标-技术壁垒-研发需求”的跨领域沟通;(2)建立工作组,德尔菲法、头脑风暴法、专家座谈、研讨会贯穿于各个阶段,形成比较规范的制定技术路线图的流程与方法。
Technology Roadmap’s Applications at National/Public Level
[1] Phaal R, Farrukh C, Probert D. Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation: Aligning Technology and Markets in a Dynamic World[M]. Cambridge: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, 2010.
[2] Willyard C H, McClees C W. Motorola’s Technology Roadmap Process[J]. Research Management, 1987,30(5):13-19.
[3] Groenveld P. Roadmapping Integrates Business and Technology[J]. Research Technology Management, 1997,40(5):48-55.
[4] European Industrial Research Management Association. Technology Roadmapping: Delivering Business Vision[R]. EIRMA Working Group Reports No. 52. Paris: EIRMA, 1997.
[5] Kostoff R N, Schaller R R. Science and Technology Roadmaps[J]. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2001,48(2):132-143.
doi: 10.1109/17.922473
[6] Porter A L, Ashton B, Clar G, et al. Technology Futures Analysis: Toward Integration of the Field and New Methods[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004,71(3):287-303.
[7] Probert D, Radnor M. Frontier Experiences from Industry-Academia Consortia[J]. IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2003,31(3). DOI: 10.1109/EMR.2003.24902.
[8] Petrick I J, Provance M. Roadmapping as a Mitigator of Uncertainty in Strategic Technology Choice[J]. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2005,1(2):171-184.
doi: 10.1504/IJTIP.2005.006513
[9] Ma T, Liu S, Nakamori Y. Roadmapping as a Way of Knowledge Management for Supporting Scientific Research in Academia[J]. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 2006,23(6):743-755.
doi: 10.1002/sres.708
[10] Galvin R. Science Roadmaps[J]. Science, 1998,280(5365):803.
pmid: 9599148
[11] Phaal R, Farrukh C J P, Probert D R. Technology Roadmapping—A Planning Frame-work for Evolution and Revolution[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004,71(1-2):5-26.
[12] UNIDO-United Nations Industrial Development Organization. UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual: Volume 1 Organization and Methods UNIDO[EB/OL]. [ 2020- 06- 01]. http://www.research.gov.ro/img/files_up/1226911327TechFor_1_unido.pdf.
[13] Whalen P J. Strategic and Technology Planning on a Roadmapping Foundation[J]. Research Technology Management, 2007,50(3):40-51.
doi: 10.1080/08956308.2007.11657440
[14] Routley M, Phaal R, Probert D. Exploring the Impacts of the Interactions Between Lifecycles and Other Dynamics That Influence the Development of Technology-Based Industries[C]// Proceedings of the 2011 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. 2011: 425-439.
[15] Moehrle M G, Isenmann R, Phaal R. Basics of Technology Roadmapping[A]// Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation[M]. Springer, 2013.
[16] Phaal R, Farrukh C, Probert D. Customizing Roadmapping[J]. Research Technology Management, 2004,47(2):26-37.
doi: 10.1080/08956308.2004.11671616
[17] Passey S J, Goh N, Kil P. Targeting the Innovation Roadmap Event Horizon: Product Concept Visioning & Scenario Building[C]// Proceedings of the 2006 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation & Technology. IEEE, 2006.
[18] Phaal R, Farrukh C J P, Probert D R. Developing a Technology Roadmapping System[C]// Proceedings of the 2005 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. 2005.
[19] Kostoff R, Tshiteya R, Pfeil K, et al. Power Source Roadmaps Using Bibliometrics and Database Tomography[J]. Energy, 2005,30(5):709-730.
doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2004.04.058
[20] Yoon B, Phaal R, Probert D. Morphology Analysis for Technology Roadmapping: Application of Text Mining[J]. R&D Management, 2007,38(1):51-68.
[21] Lahoti G, Porter A L, Zhang C, et al. Tech Mining to Validate and Refine a Technology Roadmap[J]. World Patent Information, 2018,55:1-18.
doi: 10.1016/j.wpi.2018.07.003
[22] 董微微. 专利分析方法对技术路线图制定的支撑作用研究——基于技术创新视角[J]. 现代情报, 2017,37(2):44-51.
[22] ( Dong Weiwei. Study of the Support Function of Methods of Patent Analysis on Technical Road Map Formulation—Based on Technological Innovation Perspective[J]. Journal of Modern Information, 2017,37(2):44-51.)
[23] Geum Y, Lee H J, Lee Y, et al. Development of Data-driven Technology Roadmap Considering Dependency: An ARM-based Technology Roadmapping[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015,91:264-279.
[24] Bildosola I, Maria Rio-Belver R, Garechana G, et al. TeknoRoadmap, An Approach for Depicting Emerging Technologies[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017,117:25-37.
[25] Choi S, Kim H, Yoon J, et al. An SAO-based Text-Mining Approach for Technology Roadmapping Using Patent Information[J]. R&D Management, 2013,43(1):52-74.
[26] 周潇. 新兴技术热点领域识别及技术路线图研究[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2015.
[26] ( Zhou Xiao. Research on Hot Topic Identification and Technology Roadmapping: A Case Study of Nano-Enable Drug Delivery[D]. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2015.)
[27] Wang X F, Qiu P J, Zhu D H, et al. Identification of Technology Development Trends Based on Subject-Action-Object Analysis: The Case of Dye-sensitized Solar Cells[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015,98:24-46.
[28] Gerdsri N, Kocaoglu D F. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to Build a Strategic Framework for Technology Roadmapping[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2007,46(7-8):1071-1080.
doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2007.03.015
[29] Lee J, Lee C Y, Kim T Y. A Practical Approach for Beginning the Process of Technology Roadmapping[J]. International Journal of Technology Management, 2009,47(4):306-321.
doi: 10.1504/IJTM.2009.024432
[30] Lee J H, Phaal R, Lee S H. An Integrated Service-Device-Technology Roadmap for Smart City Development[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013,80(2):286-306.
[31] Groenveld P. Roadmapping Integrates Business and Technology[J]. Research Technology Management, 2007,50(6):49-58.
[32] Kameoka A, Suzuki Y. Integrated Strategy Development by Delphi-Scenario Writing Method-A Review of Home Facsimile Innovation and Its Strategy Development in 1970s[C] //Proceedings of the 2002 International Engineering Management Conference. IEEE, 2002.
[33] Kameoka A, Yokoo Y, Kuwahara T. A Challenge of Integrating Technology Foresight and Assessment in Industrial Strategy Development and Policymaking[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004,71(6):579-598.
[34] Pagani M. Roadmapping 3G Mobile TV: Strategic Thinking and Scenario Planning Through Repeated Cross-impact Handling[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2009,76(3):382-395.
[35] Geum Y, Lee S, Park Y. Combining Technology Roadmap and System Dynamics Simulation to Support Scenario-planning: A Case of Car-sharing Service[J]. Computers and Industrial Engineering, 2014,71:37-49.
doi: 10.1016/j.cie.2014.02.007
[36] Lee C, Song B, Park Y. An Instrument for Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping: How to Assess the Impacts of Future Changes on Organisational Plans[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015,90:285-301.
[37] Lee H, Geum Y. Development of the Scenario-based Technology Roadmap Considering Layer Heterogeneity: An Approach Using CIA and AHP[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017,117:12-24.
[38] Nakamori Y. Towards Supporting Technology Creation Based on Knowledge Science[C] //Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Global-Link Publisher, 2003: 33-38.
[39] Ma T, Wierzbicki A, Nakamori Y. Establish a Creative Environment for Roadmapping in Academy—From the Perspective of I-System Methodology[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2007,16(4):469-488.
doi: 10.1007/s11518-007-5047-5
[40] Yamashita Y NakamoriY, Wierzbicki A. Knowledge Synjournal in Technology Development[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2009,18(2):184-202.
doi: 10.1007/s11518-009-5103-4
[41] Gerdsri N, Vatananan R S, Dansamasatid S. Dealing with the Dynamics of Technology Roadmapping Implementation: A Case Study[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2009,76(1):50-60.
[42] Barker D, Smith D J H. Technology Foresight Using Roadmaps[J]. Long Range Planning, 1995,28(2):21-28.
doi: 10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-H
[43] 张振刚, 余传鹏, 林春培. 技术路线图研究回顾与展望[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2013,30(5):154-160.
[43] ( Zhang Zhengang, Yu Chuanpeng, Lin Chunpei. Review and Prospect on the Technology Roadmap Research[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2013,30(5):154-160.)
[44] Uchihira N. Future Direction and Roadmap of Concurrent System Technology[J]. IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences, 2007,90(11):2443-2448.
[45] Garcia M L, Bray O H. Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping[R]. SAND97-0665. Sandia National Laboratories, 1997.
[46] Industry Canada. Technology Roadmapping in Canada: A Development Guide[EB/OL]. [ 2020- 06- 10]. http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/trm-crt.nsf/eng/h_rm00228.html.
[47] 罗伯特·哈尔, 克莱尔·法鲁克, 戴维·普罗伯特. 技术路线图—规划成功之路[M]. 苏竣等译. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2009.
[47] ( Phaal R, Farrukh C, Probert D. T-Plan: Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping—Planning Your Route to Success[M]. Translated by Su Jun, et al. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2009.)
[48] 刘细文, 柯春晓. 技术路线图的应用研究及其对战略情报研究的启示[J]. 图书情报工作, 2007,51(6):37-40,112.
[48] ( Liu Xiwen, Ke Chunxiao. The Applications of Technology Roadmap and Its Enlightenment to Strategic Intelligence Research[J]. Library and Information Service, 2007,51(6):37-40,112.)
[49] Phaal R, Mitchell R, Probert D. T-Plan and S-Plan Fast-Start Roadmapping Approaches, Introduction and Application of Roadmapping[A]// Khotsuki S. R&D Management[M]. Technical Information Institute, Tokyo, 2008: 73-89.
[50] Galvin R. Roadmapping: A Practitioner’s Update[J]. Technology Forecast & Social Change, 2004,71(1-2):101-103.
[51] DeGregorio G. Technology Management via a Set of Dynamically Linked Roadmaps[C] // Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE Conference on Engineering Management Society. 2000.
[52] Albright R E, Kappel T A. Roadmapping in the Corporation[J]. Research Technology Management, 2003,46(2):31-40.
[53] Stock J, Boyer S, Harmon T. Research Opportunities in Supply Chain Management[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2010,38:32-41.
doi: 10.1007/s11747-009-0136-2
[54] Petrick I, Pogrebnyakov N. The Challenges in Communities of Creation for Distributed Innovation and Knowledge Sharing[A]// Dwivedi A, Butcher T. Supply Chain Management and Knowledge Management—Integrating Critical Perspectives in Theory and Practice[M]. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009: 3-18.
[55] Pathak S, Day J, Nair A, et al. Complexity and Adaptivity in Supply Networks: Building Supply Network Theory Using a Complex Adaptive Systems Perspective[J]. Decision Sciences, 2007,38(4):547-580.
doi: 10.1111/deci.2007.38.issue-4
[56] Iansiti M, Levien R. The Keystone Advantage[M]. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004.
[57] Chesbrough H. Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology[M]. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006.
[58] Schuh G, Wemhöner H, Orilski S. Technological Overall Concepts for Future-Oriented Roadmapping[A]//Moehrle M, Isenmann R, Phaal R. Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation[M]. Springer, 2013: 107-121.
[59] H.R. 3585-Solar Technology Roadmap Act [EB/OL][2020-06-01]. https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/house-bill/3585?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=9401222942c2cd358b359bba494969a8dfe253bc-1590989414-0-AajdzI4fRZEcZBhjjtJuwLv1XFkpQAaZJyy X1_9t65EaWdETVd95HDDgXKAc59CIMNyYcIcMqwsV8Q8J MViy7ZE2tYgsTCPxtPoqRrVSG0fzc2USfocj631rbvm6nI5CMMA1uTdOsSI15B3BLewwVX9aaFv9jQPeG8hzLcy-iTbfbjInnlrkC-kZ8ORdDmtrkHBbT-61-mLS4cti3tUif0knvqDVeopqXTYCmVG qphIDvP_0aiUxF_GFmTrbB10kd_viV2U6tWmT2A_Q_-1VoBY WLMAWOPOo1uu1YAm4oN-Ji6VL2ZtToEzZu1tEGvy9nA.)
[60] Schaller R. Technological Innovation in the Semiconductor Industry: A Case Study of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors[D]. Fairfax, VA, USA: George Mason University, 2004.
[61] National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Space Electronics Technology Summary[R]. NASA, Washington, DC, United States of America Report: NASA-TM-X-73044.
[62] 岳光溪, 周大力, 田文龙, 等. 中国煤炭清洁燃烧技术路线图的初步探讨[J]. 中国工程科学, 2018,20(3):74-79.
[62] ( Yue Guangxi, Zhou Dali, Tian Wenlong, et al. Preliminary Discussion on the Technology Roadmap of Clean Coal Combustion in China[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2018,20(3):74-79.)
[63] 孟凡生, 李晓涵. 中国新能源装备智造化发展技术路线图研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2017(9):30-37.
[63] ( Meng Fansheng, Li Xiaohan. Research on Technology Roadmap of Intelligent Development in China’s New Energy Equipment Manufacturing[J]. China Soft Science, 2017(9):30-37.)
[64] 杜祥琬, 叶奇蓁, 徐銤, 等. 核能技术方向研究及发展路线图[J]. 中国工程科学, 2018,20(3):17-24.
[64] ( Du Xiangwan, Ye Qizhen, Xu Mi, et al. Research on Technology Directions and Development Roadmap of Nuclear Energy[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2018,20(3):17-24.)
[65] 李欣, 黄鲁成. 技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究——基于文献计量和专利分析视角[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2016,33(5):62-72.
[65] ( Li Xin, Huang Lucheng. The Research of Technology Roadmapping Methods: Based on the Perspective of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2016,33(5):62-72.)
[66] Kerr C I V, Phaal R, Probert D R. Roadmapping as a Responsive Mode to Government Policy: A Goal-Orientated Approach to Realising a Vision[A]// Moehrle M, Isenmann R, Phaal R. Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation[M]. Springer, 2003: 67-87.
[67] Finger H B, Johnson P G, Morrissey J, et al. Nuclear Rockets Based on Graphite Reactor Technology: Their Applications and Development Status[R]. NASA-TM-X-54858. 1964.
[68] 惠仲阳, 范唯唯. 日本政府讨论空间科学技术发展路线图[J]. 空间科学学报, 2019,39(4):414-415.
[68] ( Hui Zhongyang, Fan Weiwei. The Japanese Government’s Discussions on the Roadmap of Space Science and Technology Development[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019,39(4):414-415.)
[69] Cho Y, Yoon S P, Kim K S. An Industrial Technology Roadmap for Supporting Public R&D Planning[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2016,107:1-12.
[70] Department of Defence(Australia). Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030[M]. Canberra, Australia: Department of Defence, 2009.
[71] 国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020)[EB/OL]. [ 2020- 06- 15]. http://www.most.gov.cn/mostinfo/xinxifenlei/gjkjgh/200811/t20081129_65774.htm.
[71] ( Medium and Long Term Science and Technology Plan of China(2006-2020)[EB/OL]. [ 2020- 06- 15]. http://www.most.gov.cn/mostinfo/xinxifenlei/gjkjgh/200811/t20081129_65774.htm
[72] 李海丽, 李玲, 陈静, 等. 国内外技术路线图典型案例分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 2011(22):200-203.
[72] ( Li Haili, Li Ling, Chen Jing, et al. Typical Cases Analysis on Technology Roadmap at Home and Abroad[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2011(22):200-203.)
[73] 曾鹏. 基于技术路线图的区域技术战略决策研究[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2014,31(1):33-38.
[73] ( Zeng Peng. The Study of Decision for Technology Roadmap Analysis—Based Regional Technological Strategy[J]. Science & Technology Process and Policy, 2014,31(1):33-38.)
[74] 周健儿, 程晓勤. 广东建筑陶瓷技术线路图[M]. 天津: 天津科学技术出版社, 2010: 18-21.
[74] ( Zhou Jian’er, Cheng Xiaoqin. Technology Roadmap of Guangdong Building Ceramics[M]. Tianjin: Tianjin Science and Technology Press, 2010: 18-21.)
[75] Tansurat P, Gerdsri N. Extended Techniques to Enhance Technology Roadmapping: Research Opportunities and Challenges[C] // Proceedings of the 2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. 2019.
[76] Kerr C, Phaal R. Technology Roadmapping: Industrial Roots, Forgotten History and Unknown Origins[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2020,155:119967.
[1] Xie Xiufang,Zhang Xiaolin. Integrated Analysis and Visualization of Sci-Tech Roadmaps: Case Study of Renewable Energy[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2017, 1(1): 16-25.
[2] Zhai Dongsheng,Wang Meng,Zhang Jie,Sun Wu. Measuring Technological Innovation Network Evolution of Targeting Technology[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2016, 32(11): 64-75.
[3] Ye Chunlei, Leng Fuhai. Building the Future-oriented Technology Thesaurus of Technology Roadmap[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2013, (5): 59-63.
[4] Zhang Pengyi, Qu Yan, Huang Chen. Design and Application of the S&T Innovation Group and Environment Ontology[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2013, (12): 42-47.
[5] Ye Chunlei, Leng Fuhai. Study on the Keyword Extraction from Roadmap Based on the Lexical Chains[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2013, 29(1): 50-56.
[6] Zhang Cheng,Zhu Donghua,Xu Zhijun. Application Research on Monitoring & Analysis in Hi-Tech Industry’s Technology Innovation[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2008, 24(6): 56-60.
[7] Yang Bijia,Zhang Xu. The Application of Patent’s Network Analysis in Technology Roadmap[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2008, 24(5): 61-66.
  Copyright © 2016 Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery   Tel/Fax:(010)82626611-6626,82624938   E-mail:jishu@mail.las.ac.cn