1Institute of Scientific & Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China 2The China Patent Information Center, The State Intellectual Property Office, Beijing 100088, China
[Objective] To identify emerging technologies from academic papers and patents. [Methods] We adopted the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to find technical topics and used the similarity theory to retrieve emerging technologies from the electric car data. [Results] The proposed method was more efficient than exisiting ones. It reduced the subjectivity of the experts’ evaluation and the amount of data to be analyzed. [Limitations] We did not include the expert scoring experiment in this study, thus, we could not compare the new model’s performance with those involving human judgements. [Conclusions] The proposed model could identify emerging technologies effectively and then reduce the document reading load of the experts.
(Day G S, Schoemaker P.Towards Knowledge Services: Wharton on Mananging Emerging Technologies [M]. Translated by Shi Ying, et al. Beijing: Huaxia Publishing House, 2002.)
(Zhao Zhenyuan, Yin Lu, Cheng Hong.The Challenge of Emerging Technology on Traditional Management and the Thought of Developping Special Market[J]. China Soft Science, 2004(7): 72-77.)
[3]
魏国平. 新兴技术管理策略研究—基于新兴技术特征的分类分析[D]. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2006.
[3]
(Wei Guoping.Study on Emerging Technology Management Strategy - Classification Analysis Based on Features of Emerging Technology [D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2006.)
(Tan Yi, Huang Yanli.Study on the New Emerging Technology Planning and Choosing Model[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2007, 27(8): 5-8.)
(Huang Lucheng, Lu Wenguang.Study on the Identification of Emerging Technology by an Attribute Synthetic Measure Model[J]. Science Research Management, 2009, 30(7): 190-194.)
[6]
Kostoff R N, Boylan B, Simons G R.Disruptive Technology Roadmaps[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004, 71(1): 141-159.
(Wang Lingyan, Fang Shu, Ji Peipei.Using Patent Documents to Study the Technology Framework of Detecting Emerging Technology Topics[J]. Library and Information Service, 2011, 55(18): 74-78.)
(Li Bei, Chen Xiangdong.Identification of Emerging Technologies in Nanotechnology Based on Citing Coupling Clustering of Patents[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(5): 35-40.)
[9]
Kim J, Hwang M, Jeong D H, et al.Technology Trends Analysis and Forecasting Application Based on Decision Tree and Statistical Feature Analysis[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(16): 12618-12625.
(Ren Zhijun, Qiao Xiaodong, Xu Shuo, et al.An Approach for Technology Opportunities Discovery Model Based on Data Mining[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(6): 174-177.)
[11]
殷蜀梅. 判断新兴研究趋势的技术框架研究[J]. 图书情报知识, 2008(3): 76-80.
[11]
(Yin Shumei.A Study on the Technology Framework for Detecting Emerging Trend in Medical Research[J]. Document, Informaiton & Knowledge, 2008(3): 76-80.)
[12]
Blei D M, Ng A Y, Jordan M I, et al.Latent Dirichlet Allocation[J]. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2003, 3: 993-1022.
[13]
郭道劝. 基于TRL的技术成熟度模型及评估研究[D]. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2010.
[13]
(Guo Daoquan.The Study of Technology Maturity Model and Assessment Based on TRL [D]. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2010.)
[14]
杨良选. 技术成熟度多维评估模型研究[D]. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2011.
[14]
(Yang Liangxuan.Research on Technology Maturity Multi-Dimensional Assessment Model [D]. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2011.)
[15]
Jarvenpaa H, Makinen S J.An Empirical Study of the Existence of the Hype Cycle: A Case of DVD Technology [C]. In: Proceedings of 2008 IEEE International Engineering Management Conference. 2008.
[16]
Lind J.Convergence: History of Term Usage and Lessons for Firm Strategists [A]. // The Anticipation of Converging Industries[M]. Springer London, 2004.
[17]
Tammen H, Budde A P, Zucht H.Peptidomics Analysis of Human Blood Specimens for Biomarker Discovery[J]. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2007, 7(5): 605-613.
[18]
Jarvenpaa H, Makinen S J.Empirically Detecting the Hype Cycle with the Life Cycle Indicators: An Exploratory Analysis of Three Technologies [C]. In: Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. 2008.
[19]
Budde B, Alkemadeb F, Hekkert M.On the Relation Between Communication and Innovation Activities: A Comparison of Hybrid Electric and Fuel Cell Vehicles[J]. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2013, 101: 1-15.