Please wait a minute...
Advanced Search
数据分析与知识发现  2023, Vol. 7 Issue (6): 134-147     https://doi.org/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0482
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
股吧关注网络与股票市场的关联性分析*
李雨露,赵吉昌()
北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191
Associations Between Following Network of Online Investment Community and Stock Market
Li Yulu,Zhao Jichang()
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
全文: PDF (1373 KB)   HTML ( 16
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 

【目的】 探究股吧用户关注网络中用户的股票偏好及其社交结构与股票市场的关联性。【方法】 采用统计分析的方法对股吧用户偏好进行观察,采用复杂网络分析方法对用户关注网络的结构特征进行度量,采用关联性分析的方法建立模型,研究网络结构与股票价格波动的相关性并进行显著性检验。【结果】 股吧用户关注网络中存在关注关系的用户在股票偏好上更相似(K-S test~0.235, p~0),网络的结构会影响信息的传播结果,进而与股票价格的相似波动关联,其中网络效率这一结构变量的系数显著为负(p~0.01)。相关结果暗示关注网络传播信息的能力越强,股票价格的波动将越独立于其他股票和市场平均水平的波动,增加关注网络传播信息的能力可减少股价共同振荡。【局限】 缺乏对不同社交平台数据的实验验证和分析比较。【结论】 本文研究方法和结果可以为市场监管和投资者的投资行为提供一定的启示。

服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
李雨露
赵吉昌
关键词 社交媒体用户关注网络股票价格波动关联性分析信息传播能力    
Abstract

[Objective] This paper explores the stock preference in the following network of Guba (a Chinese online investment community) users. It examines the correlation between the stock market performance and the social structures of the network. [Methods] First, we used statistical analysis to study users’ preferences. Then, we utilized complex network analysis to learn the structural characteristics of the users’ following network. Finally, we conducted a correlation analysis to examine the correlations between network structures and stock price fluctuations. [Results] Users with the following relationships in the network are more similar in their stock preference (K-S test~0.235, p~0). The structures of the following network affect the dissemination of information, which is significantly correlated to the fluctuation of stock prices. The structural variables of network efficiency are significantly negative (p~0.01). Our findings suggest that the stronger the ability of the following network to spread information, the more independent the fluctuation of stock price will be from the fluctuation of other stocks and the market average. Increasing the ability to disseminate information on the following network can reduce the co-oscillation of the stock price in China. [Limitations] This study lacks experimental validation and analysis comparison of data from different social platforms. [Conclusions] The research methods and results presented in this paper can provide some guidance for market regulation and stock investment.

Key wordsSocial Media    Following Network    Stock Price Fluctuation    Correlation Analysis    Information Dissemination Capabilities
收稿日期: 2022-05-13      出版日期: 2023-08-09
ZTFLH:  TP391  
  G35  
基金资助:* 国家自然科学基金项目(71871006)
通讯作者: 赵吉昌,ORCID:0000-0002-5319-8060,E-mail: jichang@buaa.edu.cn。   
引用本文:   
李雨露, 赵吉昌. 股吧关注网络与股票市场的关联性分析*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2023, 7(6): 134-147.
Li Yulu, Zhao Jichang. Associations Between Following Network of Online Investment Community and Stock Market. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2023, 7(6): 134-147.
链接本文:  
https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0482      或      https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/Y2023/V7/I6/134
Fig.1  分析研究框架
字段名 说明 数据结构
ID 用户ID String
post_count 用户的发帖数量 Int
stock_count 用户的自选股数量 Int
stock_list 用户的自选股列表 List
following_list 用户关注的其他用户ID列表 List
Table 1  股吧用户数据结构
Fig.2  用户偏好相似性随机前后分布
Fig.3  两支股票的用户关注子网络规模分布
Fig.4  变量异常值筛选
变量 Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
efficiency -3 491.86 836.63 -4.17 0 -5 131.704 -1 852.015 ***
reciprocity 0.761 0.188 4.04 0 0.391 1.13 ***
transitivity 0.548 0.224 2.44 0.015 0.108 0.987 **
subrate -8.73e-08 0 -4.21 0 0 0 ***
avposts -0.004 0 -9.72 0 -0.005 -0.003 ***
avstocks -0.009 0.001 -9.15 0 -0.011 -0.007 ***
adjusted_profit 0 0 -14.54 0 0 0 ***
roe -0.002 0.001 -2.29 0.022 -0.004 0 **
profit_to_revenue 0 0 -3.09 0.002 0 0 ***
scale 0 0 15.29 0 0 0 ***
Constant 2.219 0.289 7.69 0 1.654 2.785 ***
Mean dependent var -1.084 SD dependent var 2.222
R-squared 0.021 Number of obs 24 726
F-test 53.831 Prob > F 0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC) 109 135.233 Bayesian crit. (BIC) 109 216.389
Table 2  两只股票 c o m v _ r _ s q u a r e回归结果
变量 VIF 1/VIF
avstocks 1.430 0.702
adjusted_profit 1.250 0.801
subrate 1.240 0.805
scale 1.180 0.849
efficiency 1.170 0.858
avposts 1.090 0.916
reciprocity 1.060 0.947
transitivity 1.020 0.976
roe 1.010 0.993
profit_to_revenue 1.000 0.996
Mean VIF 1.140
Table 3  VIF共线性检验
Fig.5  传递性网络结构示意
变量 Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
efficiency -334.86 131.967 -2.54 0.011 -593.524 -76.195 **
reciprocity 0.186 0.03 6.25 0 0.127 0.244 ***
transitivity 0.09 0.035 2.54 0.011 0.02 0.159 **
subrate -7.18e-09 0 -2.19 0.028 0 0 **
avposts -0.001 0 -11.51 0 -0.001 -0.001 ***
avstocks -0.001 0 -4.72 0 -0.001 0 ***
adjusted_profit 0 0 -18.20 0 0 0 ***
roe -0.001 0 -4.72 0 -0.001 0 ***
profit_to_revenue 0 0 -6.36 0 0 0 ***
scale 0 0 16.08 0 0 0 ***
Constant 0.861 0.046 18.91 0 0.772 0.95 ***
Mean dependent var 0.500 SD dependent var 0.351
R-squared 0.027 Number of obs 24 726
F-test 68.039 Prob > F 0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC) 17 805.972 Bayesian crit. (BIC) 17 887.128
Table 4  两只股票 c o m v _ c o r r回归结果
变量 Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
efficiency -3 942.509 1 842.634 -2.14 0.032 -7 555.888 -329.13 **
reciprocity 0.931 0.796 1.17 0.242 -0.63 2.491
transitivity -0.314 0.511 -0.62 0.538 -1.316 0.687
subrate -4.501 2.082 -2.16 0.031 -8.583 -0.419 **
avposts -0.005 0.001 -3.96 0 -0.007 -0.003 ***
avstocks 0.012 0.005 2.57 0.01 0.003 0.02 **
adjusted_profit 0 0 11.07 0 0 0 ***
roe 0.002 0.001 1.40 0.163 -0.001 0.004
profit_to_revenue 0 0 -1.57 0.117 0 0
scale 0 0 3.58 0 0 0 ***
Constant 2.499 1.593 1.57 0.117 -0.626 5.623
Mean dependent var -0.420 SD dependent var 1.890
R-squared 0.071 Number of obs 2 333
F-test 17.624 Prob > F 0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC) 9 439.032 Bayesian crit. (BIC) 9 496.581
Table 5  单只股票 c o m v _ r _ s q u a r e回归分析(Ⅰ)
变量 Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
efficiency -970.574 297.349 -3.26 0.001 -1 553.671 -387.477 ***
reciprocity 0.331 0.128 2.58 0.01 0.079 0.583 ***
transitivity -0.094 0.082 -1.14 0.254 -0.256 0.068
subrate -1.073 0.336 -3.19 0.001 -1.731 -0.414 ***
avposts -0.001 0 -4.32 0 -0.001 0 ***
avstocks 0.003 0.001 3.86 0 0.001 0.004 ***
adjusted_profit 0 0 13.74 0 0 0 ***
roe 0 0 1.63 0.103 0 0.001
profit_to_revenue 0 0 -2.11 0.035 0 0 **
scale 0 0 3.47 0.001 0 0 ***
Constant 1.239 0.257 4.82 0 0.735 1.743 ***
Mean dependent var 0.612 SD dependent var 0.310
R-squared 0.103 Number of obs 2 333
F-test 26.684 Prob > F 0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC) 928.037 Bayesian crit. (BIC) 985.587
Table 6  单只股票 c o m v _ c o r r回归分析(Ⅱ)
[1] Hein O, Schwind M, Spiwoks M. Network Centrality and Stock Market Volatility: The Impact of Communication Topologies on Prices[J]. Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 2012, 1(1): 199-232.
[2] Ozsoylev H N, Walden J, Yavuz M D, et al. Investor Networks in the Stock Market[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2014, 27(5): 1323-1366.
doi: 10.1093/rfs/hht065
[3] Chen K, Luo P, Liu L B, et al. News, Search and Stock Co-Movement: Investigating Information Diffusion in the Financial Market[J]. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, 2018, 28: 159-171.
doi: 10.1016/j.elerap.2018.01.015
[4] Liu K Y, Zhou J N, Dong D Y. Improving Stock Price Prediction Using the Long Short-Term Memory Model Combined with Online Social Networks[J]. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2021, 30: 100507.
doi: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100507
[5] Zhou Z K, Xu K, Zhao J C. Tales of Emotion and Stock in China: Volatility, Causality and Prediction[J]. World Wide Web, 2018, 21(4): 1093-1116.
doi: 10.1007/s11280-017-0495-4
[6] Debata B, Dash S R, Mahakud J. Investor Sentiment and Emerging Stock Market Liquidity[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2018, 26: 15-31.
doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.11.006
[7] Jing N, Wu Z, Wang H F. A Hybrid Model Integrating Deep Learning with Investor Sentiment Analysis for Stock Price Prediction[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2021, 178: 115019.
doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115019
[8] Zhang X, Shi J W, Wang D, et al. Exploiting Investors Social Network for Stock Prediction in China’s Market[J]. Journal of Computational Science, 2018, 28: 294-303.
doi: 10.1016/j.jocs.2017.10.013
[9] Kumar S, Saini M, Goel M, et al. Modeling Information Diffusion in Online Social Networks Using a Modified Forest-Fire Model[J]. Journal of Intelligent Information Systems, 2021, 56(2): 355-377.
doi: 10.1007/s10844-020-00623-8
[10] 张宁, 尹乐民, 何立峰. 网络股评“发布者-关注者”BSI与股票市场关联性研究[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(6): 1-12.
[10] (Zhang Ning, Yin Lemin, He Lifeng. Impacts of “Poster-Follower” Sentiment on Stock Market Performance[J]. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018, 2(6): 1-12.)
[11] 刘海飞, 许金涛, 柏巍, 等. 社交网络、投资者关注与股价同步性[J]. 管理科学学报, 2017, 20(2): 53-62.
[11] (Liu Haifei, Xu Jintao, Bai Wei, et al. Social Networks, Investor Attention and Stock Price Synchronicity[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20(2): 53-62.)
[12] 王欣瑞, 何跃. 社交媒体用户交互行为与股票市场的关联分析研究: 基于新浪财经博客的实证[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(11): 108-119.
[12] (Wang Xinrui, He Yue. Predicting Stock Market Fluctuations with Social Media Behaviors: Case Study of Sina Finance Blog[J]. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2019, 3(11): 108-119.)
[13] Latora V, Marchiori M. Efficient Behavior of Small-World Networks[J]. Physical Review Letters, 2001, 87(19): 198701.
doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.87.198701
[14] Wu J R, Xu K, Chen X Y, et al. Price Graphs: Utilizing the Structural Information of Financial Time Series for Stock Prediction[J]. Information Sciences, 2022, 588: 405-424.
doi: 10.1016/j.ins.2021.12.089
[15] Lu S, Zhao J C, Wang H W. The Emergence of Critical Stocks in Market Crash[J]. Frontiers in Physics, 2020, 8: 49.
doi: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00049
[16] Roll R. The International Crash of October 1987[J]. Financial Analysts Journal, 1988, 44(5): 19-35.
doi: 10.2469/faj.v44.n5.19
[17] Morck R, Yeung B, Yu W. The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets Have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2000, 58(1-2): 215-260.
doi: 10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00071-4
[18] Drake M S, Jennings J, Roulstone D T, et al. The Comovement of Investor Attention[J]. Management Science, 2017, 63(9): 2847-2867.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2477
[19] Su F, Wang X Y. Investor Co-Attention and Stock Return Co-Movement: Evidence from China’s A-Share Stock Market[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021, 58: 101548.
doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101548
[20] Prasetyo I, Aliyyah N, Rusdiyanto, et al. Impact Financial Performance to Stock Prices: Evidence from Indonesia[J]. Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues, 2021, 24: 1-11.
[21] 董琳. 上市公司股价与财务指标相关性分析[J]. 商业会计, 2013(19): 80-82.
[21] (Dong Lin. Correlation Analysis Between Stock Price and Financial Indicators of Listed Companies[J]. Commercial Accounting, 2013(19): 80-82.)
[1] 江布拉提·吾喜洪, 王小梅, 陈挺. 基于Twitter的学科领域研究前沿探测研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2023, 7(1): 89-101.
[2] 李雪丽, 黄令贺, 陈佳星. 基于元分析的社交媒体用户隐私披露意愿影响因素研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2022, 6(4): 97-107.
[3] 李纲, 张霁, 毛进. 面向突发事件画像的社交媒体图像分类研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2022, 6(2/3): 67-79.
[4] 冯小东, 惠康欣. 基于异构图神经网络的社交媒体文本主题聚类*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2022, 6(10): 9-19.
[5] 安璐, 徐曼婷. 突发公共卫生事件情境下网民对政务微博信任度的测度*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2022, 6(1): 55-68.
[6] 谢豪,毛进,李纲. 基于多层语义融合的图文信息情感分类研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2021, 5(6): 103-114.
[7] 马莹雪,赵吉昌. 自然灾害期间微博平台的舆情特征及演变*——以台风和暴雨数据为例[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2021, 5(6): 66-79.
[8] 张国标,李洁. 融合多模态内容语义一致性的社交媒体虚假新闻检测*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2021, 5(5): 21-29.
[9] 刘倩, 李晨亮. 基于社交媒体的话题演变研究综述*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2020, 4(8): 1-14.
[10] 李纲, 管为栋, 马亚雪, 毛进. 学术论文的社交媒体可见性预测研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2020, 4(8): 63-74.
[11] 谭荧,张进,夏立新. 社交媒体情境下的情感分析研究综述[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2020, 4(1): 1-11.
[12] 吴小兰,章成志. 学术社交媒体视角下学科知识流动规律研究*——以科学网为例[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(4): 107-116.
[13] 王林,王可,吴江. 社交媒体中突发公共卫生事件舆情传播与演变*——以2018年疫苗事件为例[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(4): 42-52.
[14] 王晰巍,王铎,郑晴晓,韦雅楠. 在线品牌社群环境下企业与用户的信息互动研究*——以虚拟现实产业为例[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(3): 83-94.
[15] 蒋翠清,郭轶博,刘尧. 基于中文社交媒体文本的领域情感词典构建方法研究*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2019, 3(2): 98-107.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 2015 《数据分析与知识发现》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村北四环西路33号 邮编:100190
电话/传真:(010)82626611-6626,82624938
E-mail:jishu@mail.las.ac.cn