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数据分析与知识发现  2023, Vol. 7 Issue (5): 21-32     https://doi.org/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0538
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于多模态深度学习的酒店股票预测*
刘洋1,2,张雯1,胡毅3,毛进2(),黄菲4
1武汉大学信息管理学院 武汉 430072
2武汉大学信息资源研究中心 武汉 430072
3武汉大学国家网络安全学院 武汉 430072
4武汉大学经济与管理学院 武汉 430072
Hotel Stock Prediction Based on Multimodal Deep Learning
Liu Yang1,2,Zhang Wen1,Hu Yi3,Mao Jin2(),Huang Fei4
1School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2Center for Studies of Information Resource, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072, China
3School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
4Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
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摘要 

【目的】 基于多模态深度学习方法,通过分析旅游评论中消费者情绪,预测酒店股票的价格走势。【方法】 构建多模态的深度学习模型,首先进行多模态信息的编码,通过LSTM和图神经网络提取文本与图片中的交互信息,最后进行酒店股票的预测。【结果】 结合Yelp的旅游评论数据进行实证研究,并与相关基线模型作比较。实验结果表明,本文提出的多模态模型具有优越性,股票预测的平均准确率达到59.10%。【局限】 仅在Yelp网站的4个酒店的数据集上进行模型测试,未在其他旅游平台上进一步验证。【结论】 所提模型能够充分提取不同模态间的交互信息,有效提升酒店股票预测的准确性。

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刘洋
张雯
胡毅
毛进
黄菲
关键词 多模态数据深度学习旅游评论消费者情绪股票预测    
Abstract

[Objective] This paper aims to predict the price trend of hotel stocks by analyzing consumer sentiment in tourism reviews using multi-modal deep learning methods. [Methods] First, we constructed a multi-modal deep learning model to encode the multi-modal information. Then, we extracted the interaction information between texts and images through LSTM and graph neural network. Finally, we predicted the price of hotel stocks. [Results] We conducted an empirical study using Yelp’s tourism review data. Compared with the baseline models, the proposed model has superiority, and the average accuracy of stock prediction reached 59.10%. [Limitations] The proposed model was only tested on the dataset of four hotels on the Yelp website and has not been further validated on other tourism platforms. [Conclusions] The proposed model can effectively extract the interactive information between different modalities and improve the accuracy of hotel stock prediction.

Key wordsMultimodal Data    Deep Learning    Travel Reviews    Consumer Sentiment    Stock Prediction
收稿日期: 2022-05-26      出版日期: 2023-07-04
ZTFLH:  TP391  
  G350  
基金资助:*国家自然科学基金青年项目(72204190);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(22YJCZH114);中国博士后基金面上项目的研究成果之一(2022M722476)
通讯作者: 毛进,ORCID:0000-0001-9572-6709,E-mail:danveno@163.com。   
引用本文:   
刘洋, 张雯, 胡毅, 毛进, 黄菲. 基于多模态深度学习的酒店股票预测*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2023, 7(5): 21-32.
Liu Yang, Zhang Wen, Hu Yi, Mao Jin, Huang Fei. Hotel Stock Prediction Based on Multimodal Deep Learning. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2023, 7(5): 21-32.
链接本文:  
https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0538      或      https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/CN/Y2023/V7/I5/21
Fig.1  本文的模型框架
Fig.2  模型的输入模块
Fig.3  图卷积网络模块
酒店品牌 门店数量 评论数量
Crown Plaza 26 3 891
Hilton 59 11 814
Marriott 27 4 286
Westin 18 5 917
总计 130 25 908
Table 1  各酒店的数据展示
特征名称 特征说明
Date 评论发表的时间
Brand 评论对应的酒店品牌
Area 酒店门店所处的城市
Comment 评论文本
Picture 评论图片
Table 2  特征说明
酒店名称 股票代码 数据条数
Crown Plaza InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) 4 745
Hilton Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) 4 115
Marriott Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) 6 016
Westin Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) 6 016
Table 3  酒店股票数据
Fig.4  酒店日期分布
模型 Accuracy (%) F1-score (%)
Crown Plaza Marriott Westin Hilton Crown Plaza Marriott Westin Hilton
Baseline LR 50.96 53.55 48.74 54.46 52.12 51.46 49.17 46.87
DT 47.63 51.62 50.44 51.09 49.98 52.23 52.28 50.78
SVM 49.93 51.58 48.59 52.62 56.13 57.82 48.94 35.63
CNN 51.75 52.52 51.86 52.21 56.11 53.85 52.78 51.54
RNN 52.45 53.68 51.34 54.62 56.43 51.98 50.30 45.47
本研究 LS-GCN 58.31 57.72 59.82 60.56 56.86 57.77 59.92 56.18
Table 4  基线模型对比结果
Fig.5  消融实验结果
Fig.6  不同模态的对比训练过程
Fig.7  不同模态准确率
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