Tracking Online Public Opinion Based on System Dynamics: Case Study of “Xiangshui Explosion Accident”
Deng Jiangao1,Zhang Xuan1,Fu Zhu1,2(),Wei Qingming1
1School of Enterprise Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China 2School of Economic and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China
[Objective] This paper explores the dissemination laws of online public opinion during emergencies (OPOE), aiming to help governments guide and regulate such information.[Methods] First, we used “Xiangshui Explosion Accident in Jiangsu Province” as an example and introduced unique variables for this type of events. Then, we constructed a system dynamics model for OPOE. Third, we simulated and analyzed the proposed model with Vensim software. Finally, we adopted the government-related variables as control variables to discuss the impact of government behavior on online public opinion.[Results] For the simulation experiment, the MAPE values of the online posts and news were 18% and 27%. Thus, the simulation model is feasible and could effectively describe the developing trends of online public opinions. More importantly, the government reactions also posed significant effects to the dissemination of public opinions.[Limitations] Some of our data were from questionnaires and expert scoring, which might be biased.[Conclusions] The OPOE generally rises rapidly to the peak and then slowly declines. The government response time, level of reactions and transparency of official news posed positive, negative and negative effects to evolving of public opinions.
邓建高,张璇,傅柱,韦庆明. 基于系统动力学的突发事件网络舆情传播研究：以“江苏响水爆炸事故”为例*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2020, 4(2/3): 110-121.
Deng Jiangao,Zhang Xuan,Fu Zhu,Wei Qingming. Tracking Online Public Opinion Based on System Dynamics: Case Study of “Xiangshui Explosion Accident”. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2020, 4(2/3): 110-121.
( Sun Guofeng, Yu Pingping . Policy Agenda-Setting of the Internet Age in China——Analysis Based on the Multiple Streams Model[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China: Social Sciences Edition, 2019,21(2):40-46.)
( Qi Jiayin, Qu Qixing, Zhang Yiwen , et al. Research on Management Strategies of Internet Public Opinion from Unexpected Public Crisis Events Based on the System Dynamics Model[C]// Proceedings of the 2013 China Information Economy Society Academic Annual Meeting and Doctoral Officer Forum, Guangzhou. 2013: 1-20.)
( Zhang Yiwen, Qi Jiayin, Fang Binxing , et al. Research on the Index System of Public Opinion on Internet for Abnormal Emergency[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2010,29(11):71-75, 117.)
[4]
强韶华, 吴鹏 . 现代图书情报技术[J].现代图书情报技术, 2014(6):71-78.
[4]
( Qiang Shaohua, Wu Peng . The Research of Crowd Simulation in the Evolution Process of Web Public Opinion of Unexpected Event[J]. New Technology of Library and Information Service, 2014(6):71-78.)
[5]
Cha M, Haddadi H, Benevenuto F , et al. Measuring User Influence in Twitter: The Million Follower Fallacy [C]// Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, Washington, DC, USA. California: AAAI, 2010: 10-17.
( Wang Guohua, Zhang Jian, Bi Shuaihui . Study on Opinion Leaders of Emergencies in Network Opinion Evolution: A Case Study of Yao Jiaxin Event[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2011,30(12):1-5.)
( Wang Xiwei, Zhao Dan, Wei Junwei , et al. Empirical Research on Modeling of Online Public Opinion Propagation in a Mobile Environment: An Example Focusing on the Topic of “Ebola”[J]. Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information, 2015,34(7):683-692.)
[8]
Broniatowski D A, Paul M J, Dredze M . National and Local Influenza Surveillance Through Twitter: An Analysis of the 2012-2013 Influenza Epidemic[J]. PLoS ONE, 2013,8(12):e83672.
( Du Hongtao, Wang Junze, Li Jie . Research on Evolution Model for Online Public Opinion of Emergent Events Based on Multiple Cases[J]. Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information, 2017,36(10):1038-1049.)
( Zhao Rongying, Wang Xu . Research on Identifying Key Nodes and Guiding and Controlling Strategies of Network Public Opinion in Emergency——A Case Study of Being Suffered by Flooding in Da Xian Village[J]. Journal of Modern Information, 2018,38(1):19-24,30.)
( Zhang Yun, Liu Ling . Formation and Structural Analysis of Network Public Opinions on Sports Emergencies from the Perspective of SNA[J]. Journal of Southwest Minzu University: Humanities and Social Science, 2018(8):141-146.)
( Xu Weiwei . Research on the Evolution of Online Public Opinions and Countermeasures of Emergencies——A Case Study of the Malaysia Airlines Passenger Plane Missing[J]. China Management Informationization, 2017,20(16):203-204.)
[13]
吴佳芮 . 新西部[J].新西部, 2019(9):102-105.
[13]
( Wu Jiarui . Research on the Double Effect and Moral Guidance of Network Public Opinion in Emergencies[J]. New West, 2019(9):102-105.)
( Guo Xiaoke, Sun Jingwei . Management for Public Health Emergencies from the Perspective of Health Communication: Basic Theories, Common Methods and Effectiveness Evaluation[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Education, 2010,26(1):20-25.)
( Di Guoqiang, Zeng Huayi, Le Zhongjian , et al. System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Internet Public Opinions Events[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2012,31(8):12-20.)
[16]
Forrester J W . Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1958,36(4):37-66.
[17]
郑路, 勒中坚 . 中国软科学[J].中国软科学, 201l(8):178-184.
[17]
( Zheng Lu, Le Zhongjian . Research on System Dynamics Model for Government Public Information Resources Allocation System[J]. China Soft Science, 2011(8):178-184.)
( Zhou Ya’nan, Wei Tianjiao . Investigation into the Formation Mechanism on Network of Public Opinion Filed Events: Give an Example by the Discussin on Prosperity Forum About “5·7 Drag Racing Case in Hangzhou”[J]. Journal of Radio & TV University: Philosophy & Social Sciences, 2010(4):73-77.)
( Zhang Yiwen, Qi Jiayin, Fang Binxing , et al. Online Public Opinion Risk Warning Based on Bayesian Network Modeling[J]. Library and Information Service, 2012,56(2):76-81.)
( Zhang Yiwen, Qi Jiayin, Ma Jun , et al. Research on the Mechanism of Public Opinion on Internet for Abnormal Emergency Based on the System Dynamics Modeling[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2010,29(9):1-6.)
( Yu Lean, Li Ling, Wu Jiaqian , et al. Emergency Policy Exploration for Network Public Opinion Crisis in Water Pollution Accident by Hazardous Chemical Leakage Based on Systematic Dynamics[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2015,35(10):2687-2697.)
