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数据分析与知识发现  2021, Vol. 5 Issue (10): 103-123
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
1华侨大学工商管理学院 泉州 362021
2同济大学经济与管理学院 上海 200092
Topic Evolution of Online Reviews for Crowdfunding Campaigns
Wang Wei1,Gao Ning1,Xu Yuting1,Wang Hongwei2()
1Business School, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China
2School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
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【目的】 揭示文本作者对项目的关注点以及态度变化,深入分析众筹项目在线评论主题动态演化规律。【方法】 采用来自Kickstarter的6 537个科技类项目的497 936条在线评论为语料,使用LDA进行建模,分析在线融资项目评论主题的演化过程,并使用余弦相似度得到主题状态的演化模式。【结果】 融资初期在线评论聚焦于项目基本信息;融资中期聚焦于投资回报以及产品信息;融资末期聚焦于回报邮寄等。融资成功项目从项目信息描述、产品特征等过渡到等待产品以及产品到达等主题;融资失败项目主题逐渐演化为未来重启、项目前景。【局限】 没有区分项目类别,未来需要尝试分析不同项目类别之间的差异。另外,仅聚焦于基于回报的众筹模式,而没有考虑其他众筹模式,如股权众筹、教育众筹等也是未来的研究方向。【结论】 得到了众筹项目评论的主题强度、内容演化和状态演化,为众筹参与各方提供了丰富启示。

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关键词 众筹在线评论LDA主题演化主题强度    

[Objective] This paper reveals the change of uers’ interests in the crowdfunding projects and analyzes the dynamic evolution of their online comments on these projects. [Methods] First, we retrieved 497,936 online comments on 6,537 technology-related projects from Kickstarter as corpus. Then, with the help of LDA model, we analyzed the topic evolution of these comments. Finally, we obtained the dynamic evolution model of the topics with the help of cosine similarity. [Results] In the initial stage of financing, the comments were mainly on basic project information. Then, the comments focused on return of investments and product information. In the final stage, these comments were on the shipping issues. For successful projects, the topics developed from project description to waiting time for products and deliveries. For the failed projects, the comments gradually evolved into the possible relaunch and prospect of a new project. [Limitations] We did not distinguish the project categories, which need to be analyzed in the future. This paper only examined the reward based crowdfunding model, which also needs to be expanded. [Conclusions] This article analyzes reviews of online crowdfunding projects and expands the application of LDA in the field of crowdfunding, which provides practical suggestion for platforms, project sponsors and investors.

Key wordsCrowdfunding    Online Reviews    LDA    Topic Evolution    Topic Strength
收稿日期: 2021-01-10      出版日期: 2021-11-23
ZTFLH:  TP182  
通讯作者: 王洪伟,ORCID:0000-0003-0814-3498     E-mail:
王伟, 高宁, 徐玉婷, 王洪伟. 基于LDA的众筹项目在线评论主题动态演化分析*[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2021, 5(10): 103-123.
Wang Wei, Gao Ning, Xu Yuting, Wang Hongwei. Topic Evolution of Online Reviews for Crowdfunding Campaigns. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2021, 5(10): 103-123.
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文献 主要研究结论 研究评述
Korfiatis等[34] 以主题模型获取关键信息,为了解客户满意度和随后的服务质量提供了基础 没有考虑时间因素,得到的结论无时间变化
Rossetti等[35] 探讨了主题模型在餐厅评论中的应用,提出一种多维度主题模型 只考虑了评论文本的静态主题识别,没有将时间因素考虑进去
Hu等[15] 用结构主题模型分析方法,对酒店评论进行分析,揭示了10个主题
Saura等[36] 使用LDA主题模型分析Twitter上创业有关的推文,确定主题并进行情感分析
舒文琛等[37] 采用主题模型分析情报学领域的研究现状和预测未来发展趋势 采用的语料为中文文献标题、摘要和关键字
Yin等[38] 将动态主题模型应用于与COVID-19相关的新浪微博评论 对社交媒体平台的热点评论进行分析
李慧等[21] 以文档、文档情感分布和词项为变量,提出DTSM模型,得到情感主题分布 将采集的评论数据集按时间片进行建模
关鹏等[39] 结合LDA与生命周期理论进行建模
Table 1  与本文相关的主要研究进展
Fig.1  研究框架示意图
Fig.2  主题演化分析框架
Fig.3  主题状态演化关系示意图
类别 项目数量/个 总评论数量/条 平均评论数量/条
融资成功 4 306 486 117 112.89
融资失败 2 231 11 819 5.29
总计 6 537 497 936 76.17
Table 2  数据统计
Fig.4  各类别项目比例
用户评论 评论主题 时间窗口
Time for an update? 询问何时有
PS. they were actually not friendly at all in their messages. I will post the emails that were sending me responses 与邮件沟通
How are things going? Are you any closer to shipment? 与发货、物流有关 末期/
I’ve received one of the bags I ordered. And still waiting for the other one. Please check if it’s on it’s way. Thanks. 与产品是否
So the Battery and the cable came. 陈述产品的
Table 3  用户评论示例
Fig.5  时间窗口划分示意图
Fig.6  项目评论困惑度随主题数量变化情况
时间窗口 融资成功项目主题数量 融资失败项目主题数量
总文本集 9 9
初期 7 8
中期 10 10
末期 10 9
融资结束后 9 10
Table 4  各时间窗口最优主题数
关键词 评论 内容
short, time What happened? How did you go from \$1,040 to \$7,400 in such a short time? 为什么在如此短的时间增加了融资金额
time, long @Taegoo, Thanks for your comment. You made a good point. Our time line seems too long, but it proves we have experiences in this area. 我们的时间线太长了
time, short Wonder what time of plan B, because time is running short 14 days or less 因为时间不多了,只有14天或更少
running out, time It looks as if we are running out of time on this project. Unfortunately we will not be able to ship if we are unsuccessful. 在这个项目上的时间不多了
10%, time 30% funded after 10% of the campaign time. Seems promising :) 在10%的活动时间后获得30%的资金
time, remaining I love this product and have shared it with many. Hopefully it will take off with the time remaining and we can meet the campaign goal. Good Luck! 希望它能在剩余的时间里起飞
more, time This needs more publicity and more time to get funds raised. 需要更多宣传和时间
time, up Thanks for your comments! I was trying to expose this but time was up. Anyway I will make some 时间到了
Table 5  评论文本内容(融资期限主题的例子)
项目类别 主题 特征词
融资成功 Topic0(邮件联系) email, send, survey, address, message, contact, reply
Topic1(发货跟踪) tracking, shipping, received, backer, delivery, days, week
Topic2(项目更新) updates, team, good, update, really, news, forward
Topic3(平台体验) Kickstarter, terms, connection, rights, community, invoke, safe
Topic4(退款) product, project, refund, like, money, people, campaign
Topic5(产品到货) received, mine, backer, wait, arrived, yesterday, excited
Topic6(项目支持) support, pledge, option, amazon, request, goal, feature
Topic7(融资期限) support, time, item, like, issues, mark, add
Topic8(移动端支持) app, phone, device, battery, power, USB, charge
融资失败 Topic0(移动端支持) phone, battery, USB, Bluetooth, device, version, app
Topic1(项目支持) video, backers, support, check, share, hot, twitter
Topic2(重新启动) good, luck, project, really, idea, relaunch, hope
Topic3(相关问题) questions, product, shipping, media, buy, campaign, really
Topic4(项目前景) project, hope, support, product, pledge, goal, backers
Topic5(融资目标) goal, project, reach, hope, cool, support, funding
Topic6(创业者信息) creator, idea, like, project, love, product, super
Topic7(创意评价) product, campaign, good, idea, like, nice, plan
Topic8(评论沟通) comment, update, funded, awesome, updates, removed, future
Table 6  评论总文本主题提取结果
Fig.7  项目评论主题展示
时间窗口 融资成功项目评论主题 融资失败项目评论主题
融资初期 Topic0:项目目标;Topic1:项目评论;Topic2:项目支持;Topic3:产品特征;Topic4:项目基本信息;Topic5:项目团队;Topic6:运输 Topic0:项目承诺;Topic1:项目基本信息;Topic2:项目创意;Topic3:项目回报;Topic4:融资目标;Topic5:相关问题;Topic6:运输;Topic7:产品应用
融资中期 Topic0:项目承诺;Topic1:项目支持;Topic2:运输;Topic3:app;Topic4:项目支持者;Topic5:相关问题; Topic6:USB&蓝牙; Topic7:盒子&尺寸; Topic8:项目创意; Topic9:防水测试 Topic0:运输;Topic1:项目回报;Topic2:项目支持;Topic3:项目创意;Topic4:项目评价;Topic5:产品问题;Topic6:产品评价;Topic7:版本精度;Topic8:资金募集;Topic9:产品设计
融资末期 Topic0:项目团队;Topic1:项目基本信息;Topic2:USB充电;Topic3:融资目标;Topic4:庆祝成功;Topic5:app;Topic6:电池&太阳能;Topic7:软件兼容;Topic8:运输;Topic9:无线蓝牙 Topic0:项目支持者;Topic1:运输;Topic2:质量问题;Topic3:项目承诺;Topic4:项目支持;Topic5:手机蓝牙; Topic6:创意评价; Topic7:项目团队; Topic8:希望
融资结束后 Topic0:退款;Topic1:等待产品;Topic2:电池&USB;Topic3:app&蓝牙;Topic4:产品等待时间;Topic5:项目更新;Topic6:系统&数据;Topic7:键盘&视频;Topic8:发货追踪 Topic0:项目支持者;Topic1:运输;Topic2:产品评价;Topic3:资金募集;Topic4:项目前景;Topic5:项目更新;Topic6:重新启动;Topic7:项目团队;Topic8:项目市场;Topic9:未来重启
Table 7  主题内容演化结果
Fig.8  与投资者有关的评论主题强度演化趋势
Fig.9  与项目自身信息相关的众筹项目评论主题强度演化趋势
Fig.10  融资成功的项目评论文本主题状态演化过程分析
Fig.11  融资失败的项目评论文本主题状态演化过程分析
时间窗口 评论实例 关键内容 主题类别
融资初期 Can It use osc(open sound control) via Wi-Fi? 开放声音控制 产品特征
I have bought the starter kit. 已经买了 项目支持
融资中期 Hi there,I love what you are working on! From the purpose to the design, there is so much potential.
One of the stop motion shots I'm working on now (and for a while) involves a delay so a sheet of plastic can stabilize between frames. Wpuld it be it possible with RGKit Play to automate that delay? Or is there a way to synchronize but dissonate two motor actions?
The shelves that attach to the yellow arms and the yellow arms are definitely of interest. Basically gear that can be modified to length and attach to your motors to help move products. My concern is having motors that I end up having to build new gear for all the time for different uses. 架子、黄色扶手、
融资末期 Would it be possible to buy camera slide as an add-on 可能购买 项目支持
Content creator kit is no longer available. I’m unable to edit my reward. 我的回报 项目回报
融资结束后 Hi creators, is there any nee with regard shipment and customs specially for UK? It is very important to know what we are expecting in terms of time and cost. Thanks 运输和海关 运输
I've been rewatching your videos on instagram and i really can't wait to get my RGKit Play !!! Good luck with the production guys. 真的等不及 等待产品
Table 8  融资成功的项目评论主题动态演化实例
问题 一致性
无线蓝牙 »»»» app&蓝牙 81.25%
运输 »»»» 运输 80.73%
项目创意 »»»» 庆祝成功 80.21%
融资希望 »»»» 未来重启、项目前景 79.69%、74.48%
产品应用 »»»» 产品设计 79.69%
Table 9  实际调查结果
Fig.12  产品特征主题演化路径
Fig.13  项目回报主题演化路径
Fig.14  分析流程与理论创新示意图
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