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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (10): 27-36    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0763
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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis of Civil Aviation Security with Risk Ranking and Decision Tree
Feng Wen’gang1,2,3(), Li Yan4, Li Fuhai4, Wang Xin1,2, Zhou Xiping1,2
1School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
2Research Centre for Civil Aviation Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
3Police Science Postdoctoral Research Station, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
4Public Security Bureau, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Beijing 100710, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper conducts risk assessment and decision-making analysis of civil aviation, aiming to address the security challenges facing this industry. [Methods] Based on the risk assessment results of civil aviation, we built the decision tree for civil aviation counter-terrorism, which examined the probabilities, deterrence effect, substitution effect, effectiveness of countermeasures and consequences of the potential civil aviation terrotist attacks. [Results] We evaluated the effects of various countermeasures based on the analysis of the potential terrorist attack threats. [Limitations] Only examined the proposed model with terrorist incidents happened in the past, which is difficult to measure future events. [Conclusions] This paper studies the attributes of possible terrorist attacks against the civil aviation system, including their probabilities, countermeasures, and the consequences.
Key words： Civil Aviation Security      Terrorism Risk      Risk Assessment      Decision Analysis     
Received: 09 July 2018      Published: 12 November 2018
ZTFLH:  G359 D631  
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Wen’gang Feng
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Cite this article:

Feng Wen’gang,Li Yan,Li Fuhai,Wang Xin,Zhou Xiping. Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis of Civil Aviation Security with Risk Ranking and Decision Tree. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018, 2(10): 27-36.

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https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0763     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2018/V2/I10/27

健康 社会经济 其他
精神损伤 平均经济损失值 可控制性
平均死亡数 最大经济损失值 风险特性的科学认识
最大死亡数 对社会影响 不确定性
平均受伤数 对政府影响
最大受伤数 对环境影响
较少重伤数
较多重伤数
对健康持续影响
变量名 描述 基数值 最大值 最小值
PT 恐怖分子发动攻击的概率 0.250 1 0
PK 刀斧砍杀攻击的概率 0.300 1 0
PE 爆炸物攻击的概率 0.200 1 0
PCF 纵火攻击的概率 0.200 1 0
PC 劫持交通工具攻击的概率 0.200 1 0
PA 暗杀攻击的概率 0.060 1 0
PB 生化武器攻击的概率 0.039 1 0
PN 核武器攻击的概率 0.001 1 0
IK 刀斧砍杀被阻断的概率 0.200 1 0
IE 爆炸物攻击被阻断的概率 0.100 1 0
ICF 纵火攻击被阻断的概率 0.200 1 0
IC 劫持交通工具被阻断概率 0.100 1 0
IA 暗杀被阻断的概率 0.010 1 0
IB 生化武器攻击被阻断的概率 0 1 0
IN 核武器攻击被阻断的概率 0 1 0
SK 刀斧砍杀攻击的成功概率 0.700 1 0
SE 爆炸物攻击的成功概率 0.700 1 0
SCF 纵火攻击的成功概率 0.700 1 0
SC 劫持交通工具的成功概率 0.500 1 0
SA 暗杀的成功概率 0.200 1 0
SB 生化武器攻击的成功概率 0.300 1 0
SN 核武器攻击的成功概率 0.100 1 0
变量名 描述 基数值 最大值 最小值
DK_I 提升难度降低刀斧砍杀的概率 0.45 1 0
DE_I 提升难度降低爆炸物的概率 0.25 0.50 0
DCF_I 提升难度降低纵火的概率 0.25 0.50 0
DC_I 提升难度降低劫持交通工具的概率 0.10 0.25 0
DA_I 提升难度降低暗杀的概率 0 0.25 0
DB_I 提升难度降低生化武器的概率 0 0.10 0
DN_I 提升难度降低核武器的概率 0 0.10 0
DK_D 减少收益降低刀斧砍杀的概率 0.25 0.50 0
DE_D 减少收益降低爆炸物的概率 0.10 0.25 0
DCF_D 减少收益降低纵火的概率 0.10 0.25 0
DC_D 减少收益降低劫持交通工具的概率 0.05 0.10 0
DA_D 减少收益降低暗杀的概率 0 0.10 0
DB_D 减少收益降低生化武器的概率 0 0.10 0
DN_D 减少收益降低核武器的概率 0 0.10 0
变量名 描述 基数值 最小值 最大值
SKOI_E 降低刀斧砍杀提升爆炸物攻击的概率 1.25 1 2
SKOI_CF 降低刀斧砍杀提升纵火攻击的概率 1.25 1 2
SEOI_K 降低爆炸物提升刀斧砍杀攻击的概率 1.50 1 2
SEOI_CF 降低爆炸物提升纵火攻击的概率 1.10 1 2
SCFOI_K 降低纵火提升刀斧砍杀攻击的概率 1 1 2
SCFOI_E 降低纵火提升爆炸物攻击的概率 1 1 2
变量名 描述 基数值 最大值 最小值
EK_ID 提升难度对于刀斧砍杀攻击有效性的概率 0.30 1 0
EE_ID 提升难度对于爆炸物攻击有效性的概率 0.20 0.80 0
ECF_ID 提升难度对于纵火攻击有效性的概率 0.20 0.80 0
EC_ID 提升难度对于劫持交通工具攻击有效性的概率 0.20 0.50 0
EA_ID 提升难度对于暗杀攻击有效性的概率 0.10 0.25 0
EB_ID 提升难度对于生化武器攻击有效性的概率 0 0.10 0
EN_ID 提升难度对于核武器攻击有效性的概率 0 0.10 0
EK_DE 减少收益对于刀斧砍杀攻击有效性的概率 0.20 1 0
EE_DE 减少收益对于爆炸物攻击有效性的概率 0.10 0.50 0
ECF_DE 减少收益对于纵火攻击有效性的概率 0.10 0.50 0
EC_DE 减少收益对于劫持交通工具攻击有效性的概率 0.10 0..25 0
EA_DE 减少收益对于暗杀攻击有效性的概率 0.05 0.25 0
EB_DE 减少收益对于生化武器攻击有效性的概率 0 0.10 0
EN_DE 减少收益对于核武器攻击有效性的概率 0 0.10 0
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