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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (10): 21-26    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0768
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Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Terrorism Based on K-means Clustering
Liu Minghui()
School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
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Abstract  

[Objective]This paper tries to assess the terrorism risks facing civil aviation industry quantitatively and objectively. [Methods] We proposed a risk assessment model based on K-means clustering, and then examined it with the data of terrorist attacks from 1992 to 2015. We calculated the risk of different types of attacks and their targets objectively. [Results] The risk of aircraft bombing, armed assault against the airport and airline staff were the highest, the risk of hijacking, bombing/explosion aginst the airport or airline staff were at medium level, and the risk of other attacks were relatively low. We used this method to predict the risk of terrorist attacks against the civil aviation in 2016, and the prediction accuracy was up to 92.3%. [Limitations] The proposed method for risk assessment is only suitable for processing numerical data. [Conclusions] The K-means clustering method can assess risk based on statistical data without human intervention, which could be applied to similar studies.
Key words： K-means      Clustering      Aviation System      Risk Assessment     
Received: 15 July 2018      Published: 12 November 2018
ZTFLH:  D815.5 G35  
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Minghui Liu

Cite this article:

Liu Minghui. Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Terrorism Based on K-means Clustering. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018, 2(10): 21-26.

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https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2018.0768     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2018/V2/I10/21

袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员 总计
武装袭击 20 24 8 54①
暗杀 1 2 4 7
爆炸 27 236 27 290
基础设施攻击 1 12 8 21
劫机 106 1 - 107
劫持人质 1 2 - 3
绑架 3 4 2 9
徒手攻击 1 1 2
其他 3 8 4 15
合计 162 290 54 508
袭击手段 死亡人数 受伤人数
飞机 机场 民航
工作人员		 飞机 机场 民航
工作人员
武装袭击 9 117 9 26 44 12
暗杀 0 0 3 2 0 2
爆炸 635 266 0 25 780 0
基础设施攻击 0 1 0 0 13 0
劫机 60 0 0 19 0 0
劫持人质 123 1 0 0 2 0
绑架 0 12 0 0 1 0
其他 2 11 0 0 15 0
合计 829 408 12 72 855 14
xi(j) j=1 j=2 j=3
i=1 0.1235 0.0109 0.3611
i=2 0.0062 0.0000 0.0278
i=3 0.1667 0.7660 0.3472
i=4 0.0062 0.0000 0.0000
i=5 0.6543 0.0724 0.2639
i=6 0.0062 0.1484 0.0000
i=7 0.0185 0.0000 0.0000
i=8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
武装
袭击		 暗杀 爆炸 基础
设施攻击		 劫机 劫持
人质		 绑架 徒手
攻击
低 低 高 低 中 低 低 低
袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员
武装袭击 低 高 高
暗杀 低 低 低
爆炸 高 中 中
基础设施攻击 低 低 低
劫机 中 低 低
劫持人质 低 低 低
绑架 低 低 低
徒手攻击 低 低 低
袭击手段 飞机 机场 民航工作人员
武装袭击 中 高 高
暗杀 低 低 低
爆炸 高 中 中
基础设施攻击 低 低 低
劫机 低 低 低
劫持人质 低 低 低
绑架 低 低 低
徒手攻击 低 低 低
其他 低 低 低
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