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| Predicting Survival Rates for Gastric Cancer Based on Ensemble Learning |
Xu Liangchen,Guo Chonghui( ) |
| Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China |
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Abstract [Objective] This paper constructs a model to predict the 5-year survival rates for gastric cancer based on the SEER database, aiming to provide support for the prognosis of gastric cancer, as well as analyze factors affecting the patients’ 5-year survival rates. [Methods] With the help of ensemble learning algorithm, especially the idea of EasyEnsemble, we handled data imbalance issue by combining data layer and model layer. Then, we integrated multiple GradientBoosting classifiers with Bagging, and built a prediction model using unbalanced gastric cancer survival data. Finally, we identified factors affecting the 5-year survival of gastric cancer using the SHAP value. [Results] Our new model’s prediction accuracy reached 0.808, with an AUC of 0.883. The prediction accuracy for subcategory survival patients was 0.835. Compared with the traditional models, our method yielded better prediction rates. We also found the regional nodes positive, summary stage/grade, and age had higher SHAP values. [Limitations] The related prognostic factors from the SEER database were limited, which influenced our model’s performance. [Conclusions] The new model could effectively predict survival rates for gastric cancer, and identify factors influencing the 5-year survival probability of the patients.
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Received: 15 January 2021
Published: 14 April 2021
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| Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China(71771034);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(DUT21YG108) |
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Corresponding Authors:
Guo Chonghui ORCID：0000-0002-5155-1297
E-mail: dlutguo@dlut.edu.cn
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