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| Tracking Online Public Opinion Based on System Dynamics: Case Study of “Xiangshui Explosion Accident” |
Deng Jiangao1,Zhang Xuan1,Fu Zhu1,2( ),Wei Qingming1 |
1School of Enterprise Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China
2School of Economic and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China |
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Abstract [Objective] This paper explores the dissemination laws of online public opinion during emergencies (OPOE), aiming to help governments guide and regulate such information.[Methods] First, we used “Xiangshui Explosion Accident in Jiangsu Province” as an example and introduced unique variables for this type of events. Then, we constructed a system dynamics model for OPOE. Third, we simulated and analyzed the proposed model with Vensim software. Finally, we adopted the government-related variables as control variables to discuss the impact of government behavior on online public opinion.[Results] For the simulation experiment, the MAPE values of the online posts and news were 18% and 27%. Thus, the simulation model is feasible and could effectively describe the developing trends of online public opinions. More importantly, the government reactions also posed significant effects to the dissemination of public opinions.[Limitations] Some of our data were from questionnaires and expert scoring, which might be biased.[Conclusions] The OPOE generally rises rapidly to the peak and then slowly declines. The government response time, level of reactions and transparency of official news posed positive, negative and negative effects to evolving of public opinions.
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Received: 10 June 2019
Published: 26 April 2020
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Corresponding Authors:
Zhu Fu
E-mail: fuzhu886@163.com
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