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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2022, Vol. 6 Issue (8): 97-109    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.1266
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Early-warning Model for Undergraduate Public Opinion with Dynamic Evolution
Li Chuan1,2,Zhu Xuefang1(),Fu Ziyuan1
1School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper tries to examine the social evolution analysis and System Dynamics for early warning strategies of undergraduates’ public opinion administration. [Methods] We conducted system analysis for public opinion based on user behavior theory. We analyzed the mechanism among undergraduates, official institutions, Internet environment, public opinion elements and social media with System Dynamics (SD). Finally, we built a new SD model for the early warning system of public opinion. [Results] We evaluated our model with three simulation experiments. The influence range of control elements was verified, while the control effect of credibility was falsified. Compared with other fuzzy cognitive models, our algorithm’s ACR increased by 1.4% and the CPT reduced by 50%. [Limitations] Extracting related factors depends on the research object and environmental evolution, and our model needs to be continuously optimized in the future. [Conclusions] The proposed model creates an early warning mechanism for public opinion from the undergraduate communities.

Key wordsPublic Opinion for Undergraduates      Forewarning Analysis      System Dynamics      Simulation Experiment     
Received: 05 November 2021      Published: 20 December 2021
ZTFLH:  G202  
Fund:Key Program of University Science Research Project of Anhui Province(SK2021A0252);Science Research Project of Anhui University of Finance and Economics(ACKYC21057)
Corresponding Authors: Zhu Xuefang,ORCID:0000-0002-8244-5999     E-mail: xfzhu@nju.edu.cn

Cite this article:

Li Chuan, Zhu Xuefang, Fu Ziyuan. Early-warning Model for Undergraduate Public Opinion with Dynamic Evolution. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2022, 6(8): 97-109.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.1266     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2022/V6/I8/97

Operation Mechanism of Undergraduates’ Public Opinion
Official Function Subsystem
Public Opinion Dissipation Subsystem
Virtual Community Subsystem
Social Media Subsystem
Forewarning SD Model of Undergraduates’ Public Opinion
时段 病例
新增数
主题数 信息发布数量 浏览量
社会媒体 官方机构
6.11-6.15 135 305 798 233 3.13×106
6.16-6.20 155 572 122 414 7.26×106
6.21-6.25 95 315 434 635 2.74×106
6.26-6.30 82 180 573 758 1.53×106
Public Opinion Statistics on Epidemic Closure in Mid and Late June 2020
Comparison of Information Publishing of Undergraduates’ Public Opinion
参数 SD 模型 多级模糊认知模型
精确度 0.847 0.835
响应时间 83 s 167 s
定义域 大学生舆情 多场景网络信息
Simulation Effects Between SD Model and Multi-FC Model
Trend of Undergraduates’ Public Opinion Influence
Impact of Forewarning Mechanism on Public Opinion
Impact of Official Credibility on Public Opinion
Impact of Event Attributes on Public Opinion
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