|
|
Predicting Values of Technology Convergence with Multi-Feature Fusion |
Zhang Jinzhu(),Han Yongliang |
School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China |
|
|
Abstract [Objective] This paper proposes a new method to predict technology convergence relationship and their values based on the patent classification network and text semantic features. [Methods] First, we calculated the correlation between patents and their classification to construct the co-occurrence network and obtain their structure similarity features. Then, we connected patent texts and their classification schema with the correlation strength. We also obtained the text semantic similarity features using text representation learning. Second, we constructed similarity indicators with the network structure and text semantic features, which were fused to create a feature vector. Third, we used the random forest model to learn the weights and contributions of different indicators and calculated the technology fusion probability. We also generated the candidate technology fusion relationship set. Fourth, based on the network characteristics and bibliometric characteristics of patent classification and citation, as well as their influence and potential growth, we created the evaluation indices for their technical, commercial and strategic values. Finally, we used the proposed method to evaluate the technology integration relationship. [Results] The accuracy of the proposed method is at least 20% higher than that of single feature prediction. In addition, the top 10 pairs of high-value technology convergence relations that identified by the proposed method have little difference with the real ranking result, in which the MAE is only 3.2. [Limitations] Some data sets are in-consistent, while more machine learning methods need to be utilized. [Conclusions] The feature convergence method has higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods. The proposed method can also effectively evaluate technology convergence relationship value.
|
Received: 31 August 2021
Published: 14 April 2022
|
|
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China(71974095);Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(SJCX21_0159) |
Corresponding Authors:
Zhang Jinzhu,ORCID:0000-0001-7581-1850
E-mail: zhangjinzhu@njust.edu.cn
|
[1] |
Danneels E. The Dynamics of Product Innovation and Firm Competences[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2002, 23(12):1095-1121.
doi: 10.1002/smj.275
|
[2] |
Curran C S, Leker J. Patent Indicators for Monitoring Convergence—Examples from NFF and ICT[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011, 78(2):256-273.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.021
|
[3] |
Borés C, Saurina C, Torres R. Technological Convergence: A Strategic Perspective[J]. Technovation, 2003, 23(1):1-13.
doi: 10.1016/S0166-4972(01)00094-3
|
[4] |
Islam N, Miyazaki K. Nanotechnology Innovation System: Understanding Hidden Dynamics of Nanoscience Fusion Trajectories[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2009, 76(1):128-140.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.021
|
[5] |
Adner R. When are Technologies Disruptive? a Demand-Based View of the Emergence of Competition[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2002, 23(8):667-688.
doi: 10.1002/smj.246
|
[6] |
Kim M, Baek I, Song M. Topic Diffusion Analysis of a Weighted Citation Network in Biomedical Literature[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2018, 69(2):329-342.
doi: 10.1002/asi.23960
|
[7] |
Liu J S, Kuan C H. A New Approach for Main Path Analysis: Decay in Knowledge Diffusion[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2016, 67(2):465-476.
doi: 10.1002/asi.23384
|
[8] |
Park I, Yoon B. Technological Opportunity Discovery for Technological Convergence Based on the Prediction of Technology Knowledge Flow in a Citation Network[J]. Journal of Informetrics, 2018, 12(4):1199-1222.
doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2018.09.007
|
[9] |
Zhai Y J, Ding Y, Wang F. Measuring the Diffusion of an Innovation: A Citation Analysis[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2018, 69(3):368-379.
doi: 10.1002/asi.23898
|
[10] |
Yan E J. Research Dynamics, Impact, and Dissemination: A Topic-Level Analysis[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2015, 66(11):2357-2372.
doi: 10.1002/asi.23324
|
[11] |
Nieminen P, Pölönen I, Sipola T. Research Literature Clustering Using Diffusion Maps[J]. Journal of Informetrics, 2013, 7(4):874-886.
doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2013.08.004
|
[12] |
Jee S J, Kwon M, Ha J M, et al. Exploring the Forward Citation Patterns of Patents Based on the Evolution of Technology Fields[J]. Journal of Informetrics, 2019, 13(4):100985.
doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2019.100985
|
[13] |
Ji J J, Barnett G A, Chu J X. Global Networks of Genetically Modified Crops Technology: A Patent Citation Network Analysis[J]. Scientometrics, 2019, 118(3):737-762.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-019-03006-1
|
[14] |
Jamali H R, Azadi-Ahmadabadi G, Asadi S. Interdisciplinary Relations of Converging Technologies: Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno (NBIC)[J]. Scientometrics, 2018, 116(2):1055-1073.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-018-2776-9
|
[15] |
Yan E J, Zhu Y J. Adding the Dimension of Knowledge Trading to Source Impact Assessment: Approaches, Indicators, and Implications[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 2017, 68(5):1090-1104.
doi: 10.1002/asi.23670
|
[16] |
Fukugawa N. Knowledge Creation and Dissemination by Kosetsushi in Sectoral Innovation Systems: Insights from Patent Data[J]. Scientometrics, 2016, 109(3):2303-2327.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-016-2124-x
|
[17] |
Luan C J, Liu Z Y, Wang X W. Divergence and Convergence: Technology-Relatedness Evolution in Solar Energy Industry[J]. Scientometrics, 2013, 97(2):461-475.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-013-1057-x
|
[18] |
Jeong S, Lee S. What Drives Technology Convergence? Exploring the Influence of Technological and Resource Allocation Contexts[J]. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 2015, 36:78-96.
doi: 10.1016/j.jengtecman.2015.05.004
|
[19] |
Caviggioli F. Technology Fusion: Identification and Analysis of the Drivers of Technology Convergence Using Patent Data[J]. Technovation, 2016, 55/56:22-32.
doi: 10.1016/j.technovation.2016.04.003
|
[20] |
No H J, Park Y. Trajectory Patterns of Technology Fusion: Trend Analysis and Taxonomical Grouping in Nanobiotechnology[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010, 77(1):63-75.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.06.006
|
[21] |
Kim J, Lee S. Forecasting and Identifying Multi-Technology Convergence Based on Patent Data: The Case of IT and BT Industries in 2020[J]. Scientometrics, 2017, 111(1):47-65.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-017-2275-4
|
[22] |
Kim E, Cho Y, Kim W. Dynamic Patterns of Technological Convergence in Printed Electronics Technologies: Patent Citation Network[J]. Scientometrics, 2014, 98(2):975-998.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-013-1104-7
|
[23] |
Zhou Y, Dong F, Kong D J, et al. Unfolding the Convergence Process of Scientific Knowledge for the Early Identification of Emerging Technologies[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, 144:205-220.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.03.014
|
[24] |
Jeong S, Kim J C, Choi J Y. Technology Convergence: What Developmental Stage are We in?[J]. Scientometrics, 2015, 104(3):841-871.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-015-1606-6
|
[25] |
Kim Y J, Lee D H. Technology Convergence Networks for Flexible Display Application: A Comparative Analysis of Latecomers and Leaders[J]. Japan and the World Economy, 2020, 55:101025.
doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2020.101025
|
[26] |
Feng S D, An H Z, Li H J, et al. The Technology Convergence of Electric Vehicles: Exploring Promising and Potential Technology Convergence Relationships and Topics[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 260:120992.
doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120992
|
[27] |
Cho J H, Lee J, Sohn S Y. Predicting Future Technological Convergence Patterns Based on Machine Learning Using Link Prediction[J]. Scientometrics, 2021, 126(7):5413-5429.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-021-03999-8
|
[28] |
Lee C Y, Hong S, Kim J. Anticipating Multi-Technology Convergence: A Machine Learning Approach Using Patent Information[J]. Scientometrics, 2021, 126(3):1867-1896.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-020-03842-6
|
[29] |
Preschitschek N, Niemann H, Leker J, et al. Anticipating Industry Convergence: Semantic Analyses vs IPC Co-Classification Analyses of Patents[J]. Foresight, 2013, 15(6):446-464.
doi: 10.1108/FS-10-2012-0075
|
[30] |
Kong D J, Yang J Z, Li L F. Early Identification of Technological Convergence in Numerical Control Machine Tool: A Deep Learning Approach[J]. Scientometrics, 2020, 125(3):1983-2009.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-020-03696-y
|
[31] |
Eilers K, Frischkorn J, Eppinger E, et al. Patent-Based Semantic Measurement of One-Way and Two-Way Technology Convergence: The Case of Ultraviolet Light Emitting Diodes (UV-LEDs)[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, 140:341-353.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.12.024
|
[32] |
Kim T S, Sohn S Y. Machine-Learning-Based Deep Semantic Analysis Approach for Forecasting New Technology Convergence[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, 157:120095.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120095
|
[33] |
韩卓洋. 专利价值评估体系方法综述及启示[J]. 环渤海经济瞭望, 2020(5):166.
|
[33] |
( Han Zhuoyang. Review Summary and Enlightenment of Patent Value Evaluation System[J]. Economic Outlook the Bohai Sea, 2020(5):166.)
|
[34] |
Lanjouw J O, Schankerman M. Characteristics of Patent Litigation: A Window on Competition[J]. The RAND Journal of Economics, 2001, 32(1):129.
doi: 10.2307/2696401
|
[35] |
李清海, 刘洋, 吴泗宗, 等. 专利价值评价指标概述及层次分析[J]. 科学学研究, 2007, 25(2):281-286.
|
[35] |
( Li Qinghai, Liu Yang, Wu Sizong, et al. Patent Value Indicators and Their Structure[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2007, 25(2):281-286.)
|
[36] |
李春燕, 石荣. 专利质量指标评价探索[J]. 现代情报, 2008, 28(2):146-149.
|
[36] |
( Li Chunyan, Shi Rong. Exploration on Patent Quality Index Evaluation[J]. Modern Information, 2008, 28(2):146-149.)
|
[37] |
Lee C Y, Cho Y, Seol H, et al. A Stochastic Patent Citation Analysis Approach to Assessing Future Technological Impacts[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, 79(1):16-29.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.009
|
[38] |
Fischer T, Leidinger J. Testing Patent Value Indicators on Directly Observed Patent Value—An Empirical Analysis of Ocean Tomo Patent Auctions[J]. Research Policy, 2014, 43(3):519-529.
doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2013.07.013
|
[39] |
Blackman M. EPO Patent Information Conference, Stockholm, Sweden, October, 2008[J]. World Patent Information, 2009, 31(2):152-154.
doi: 10.1016/j.wpi.2008.11.003
|
[40] |
Grimaldi M, Cricelli L, di Giovanni M, et al. The Patent Portfolio Value Analysis: A New Framework to Leverage Patent Information for Strategic Technology Planning[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 94:286-302.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.10.013
|
[41] |
赵蕴华, 张静, 李岩, 等. 基于机器学习的专利价值评估方法研究[J]. 情报科学, 2013, 31(12):15-18.
|
[41] |
( Zhao Yunhua, Zhang Jing, Li Yan, et al. Study on Evaluation for Patent Value Based on Machine Learning[J]. Information Science, 2013, 31(12):15-18.)
|
[42] |
邱一卉, 张驰雨, 陈水宣. 基于分类回归树算法的专利价值评估指标体系研究[J]. 厦门大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 56(2):244-251.
|
[42] |
( Qiu Yihui, Zhang Chiyu, Chen Shuixuan. Research of Patent-Value Assessment Indictor System Based on Classification and Regression Tree Algorithm[J]. Journal of Xiamen University (Natural Science), 2017, 56(2):244-251.)
|
[43] |
Ercan S, Kayakutlu G. Patent Value Analysis Using Support Vector Machines[J]. Soft Computing, 2014, 18(2):313-328.
doi: 10.1007/s00500-013-1059-x
|
[44] |
Bessen J E. Estimates of Patent Rents from Firm Market Value[J]. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007: 1604-1616.
|
[45] |
Chen Y S, Chang K C. Using Neural Network to Analyze the Influence of the Patent Performance upon the Market Value of the US Pharmaceutical Companies[J]. Scientometrics, 2009, 80(3):637-655.
doi: 10.1007/s11192-009-2095-2
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|