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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2022, Vol. 6 Issue (2/3): 33-44    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0962
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Predicting Values of Technology Convergence with Multi-Feature Fusion
Zhang Jinzhu(),Han Yongliang
School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper proposes a new method to predict technology convergence relationship and their values based on the patent classification network and text semantic features. [Methods] First, we calculated the correlation between patents and their classification to construct the co-occurrence network and obtain their structure similarity features. Then, we connected patent texts and their classification schema with the correlation strength. We also obtained the text semantic similarity features using text representation learning. Second, we constructed similarity indicators with the network structure and text semantic features, which were fused to create a feature vector. Third, we used the random forest model to learn the weights and contributions of different indicators and calculated the technology fusion probability. We also generated the candidate technology fusion relationship set. Fourth, based on the network characteristics and bibliometric characteristics of patent classification and citation, as well as their influence and potential growth, we created the evaluation indices for their technical, commercial and strategic values. Finally, we used the proposed method to evaluate the technology integration relationship. [Results] The accuracy of the proposed method is at least 20% higher than that of single feature prediction. In addition, the top 10 pairs of high-value technology convergence relations that identified by the proposed method have little difference with the real ranking result, in which the MAE is only 3.2. [Limitations] Some data sets are in-consistent, while more machine learning methods need to be utilized. [Conclusions] The feature convergence method has higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods. The proposed method can also effectively evaluate technology convergence relationship value.

Key wordsMultiple Features      Technology Convergence Relationship      Forecast      Value Assessment     
Received: 31 August 2021      Published: 14 April 2022
ZTFLH:  G350  
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China(71974095);Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(SJCX21_0159)
Corresponding Authors: Zhang Jinzhu,ORCID:0000-0001-7581-1850     E-mail: zhangjinzhu@njust.edu.cn

Cite this article:

Zhang Jinzhu, Han Yongliang. Predicting Values of Technology Convergence with Multi-Feature Fusion. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2022, 6(2/3): 33-44.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2021.0962     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2022/V6/I2/3/33

Overall Process
年份 专利数量 专利引用关系数量 涉及IPC数量 IPC共现关系数量
2015 1 673 145 525 1 483
2016 3 012 473 768 3 517
2017 6 848 1 222 1 222 7 866
2018 10 603 1 605 1 644 11 060
Description of Data
预测方法 Top10 Top50 Top100 Top500
共同邻居指标 0.8 0.70 0.68 0.52
改进共同邻居指标 0.9 0.72 0.71 0.54
资源分配指标 0.9 0.66 0.60 0.51
改进资源分配指标 0.8 0.68 0.68 0.53
Improvement Effect of Node Similarity Index
潜在技术融合关系 语义相似性 基于中心度的结构相似性 基于关联强度的结构相似性
度中心度 中介中心度 接近中心度 改进的共同邻居指标 改进的资源分配指标
['G05B-015', 'G08B-021'] 0.66 0.11 1.65 0.04 7.25 12.75
['G05B-019', 'H02J-013'] 0.65 0.15 1.69 0.10 2.22 7.03
['G07C-001', 'G07F-007'] 0.66 0.02 1.39 0 1.02 1.55
['G08G-001', 'H04N-007'] 0.66 0.08 1.61 0.04 5.17 9.32
['G01D-021', 'G06Q-050'] 0.66 0.11 1.70 0.03 8.74 19.46
['G06Q-020', 'G06Q-030'] 0.66 0.06 1.54 0.02 3.23 4.84
Input Vector of Technology Convergence Relationship Prediction
Prediction Effects of Different Methods
指标 文本语义
方法
改进的CN
方法
改进的RA
方法
多特征融合
方法
AUC 0.83 0.66 0.66 0.93
Comparison of AUC of Different Methods
Contribution of Each Feature in Multi Feature Convergence Method
变量 影响力评价 成长潜力评价 截距
商业影响力 技术影响力 融合增长率 ——
专利权利要求数量 引用网络中介中心度 引用网络PageRank 聚合的PageRank
系数 -9.3e+01 -7.6e-02 1.8e+03 7.3e+02 2.2e-01 2.43
Variables and Coefficients of Regression Equation
评价指标 得分
MAE 11.73
RMSE 18.17
Evaluation scores of regression equation
比较项 被引频次排名比较
评估结果 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
真实结果 2 1 3 5 12 17 8 4 6 7
排名误差 1 1 0 1 7 11 1 4 3 3
Results of Impact Evaluation Methods
High Value Technology Convergence Relationship Screening
技术融合关系 预测价值排名 真实价值排名 排名误差
['F21V-023', 'H04L-029'] 77 120 43
['H01Q-009', 'H04L-029'] 83 122 39
['F21W-131', 'H04L-029'] 86 183 97
['F21S-009', 'H04L-029'] 91 184 93
['H01L-025', 'H04L-029'] 93 105 12
['F21V-021', 'H04L-029'] 97 186 89
['G16H-010', 'H04L-029'] 98 258 160
High Value Technology Convergence Relationships
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