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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2024, Vol. 8 Issue (2): 143-154    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.1261
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Predicting User Pay Conversion Intention Based on Stacking Ensemble Learning: Case Study of Free Value-Added Games
Li Meiyu(),Liu Yang,Wang Yixuan,Zhu Qinghua
School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper proposes a model based on the Stacking ensemble learning method to predict users' intention to convert to paid services, aiming to identify potential paying users accurately. [Methods] We constructed a model for predicting payment intention based on Stacking ensemble learning. First, we determined the base model combination by their prediction performance. Then, we examined the proposed model performance and portability with game players' behavior data set. [Results] The prediction accuracy of our model reached 90.88%, with a F1 value of 90.71% and an AUC value of 0.960 2. Compared to the Bayesian model with the worst performance, our model improved by 4.15%, 4.50%, and 0.106 2, respectively. [Limitations] Our model cannot predict whether players will engage in irrational spending. [Conclusions] This study verifies the applicability of the Stacking ensemble learning method in game payment scenarios. The fusion of multiple models can obtain stable and accurate prediction results of payment intention. The proposed model could predict users' payment intentions in different fields.

Key wordsStacking Ensemble Learning      Model Fusion      Freemium Model      Payment Intention      Portability     
Received: 27 November 2022      Published: 30 March 2023
ZTFLH:  TP181  
  G252  
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China(72174083)
Corresponding Authors: Li Meiyu,ORCID:0000-0002-4155-2501,E-mail: limeiyu1998@163.com。   

Cite this article:

Li Meiyu, Liu Yang, Wang Yixuan, Zhu Qinghua. Predicting User Pay Conversion Intention Based on Stacking Ensemble Learning: Case Study of Free Value-Added Games. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2024, 8(2): 143-154.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.1261     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2024/V8/I2/143

Implementation Roadmap
Stacking Ensemble Learning Method
Algorithm Architecture
变量 特征名 特征解释 统计时间 特征数量
自变量 wood_add_value 木头获取数量 前7天 107
stone_add_value 石头获取数量 前7天
pvp_battle_count PVP次数 前7天
pvp_win_count PVP获胜次数 前7天
avg_online_minutes 在线时长 前7天
pve_win_count PVE胜利次数 前7天
……
因变量 prediction_pay_price 45日付费金额 前45天 1
Partial Feature Statistics of Game Data
Representation of Data Items After Feature Dimension Reduction
算法 超参数值
XGBoost n_estimators=130,learning_rate=0.03,max_depth=7,subsample=0.9
RandomForest n_estimators=500, min_samples_split=100,max_depth=8,min_samples_leaf=20
AdaBoost n_estimators=500, learning_rate=0.1
GBDT n_estimators=96,max_depth=12,
min_samples_split= 200,learning_rate=0.06
Value of Key Hyperparameters of Base Model Based on Ensemble Learning
选取方案 基模型组合 A U C
无非集成模型 XGBoost、RandomForest、GBDT 0.959 6
一种非集成模型 XGBoost、RandomForest、SVM 0.960 2
两种非集成模型 RandomForest、SVM、DT 0.958 8
三种非集成模型 SVM、KNN、DT 0.958 6
The Optimal Combination in the Base Model Ensemble Selection Schemes
Confusion Matrix
Comparison of the Accuracy and F1 Value
Comparison of ROC
特征名 特征解释 特征数量
comment_num 累计评论数分段 20
has_bad_comment 是否有差评 20
Bad_comment_rate 差评率 20
action_time 用户行为时间 20
action_type 用户行为类型 20
user_lv_cd 用户等级 20
…… …… ……
Partial Feature Statistics of Sales Data on E-commerce Platforms
ROC of the Consumer Payment Intention Prediction Model Based on Stacking Fusion
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