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Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery  2023, Vol. 7 Issue (3): 80-96    DOI: 10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0578
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Simulation Research of Targeted Collaborative Decision-Making Model for Large Groups in Major Emergencies
Hao Zhiyuan1,Ma Jie1,2(),Sun Wenjing1
1School of Business and Management, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
2Information Resource Research Center, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
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Abstract  

[Objective] This paper tries to effectively improve the decision-making efficiency of governmental agencies in major emergencies. [Methods] From the perspective of information dissemination and based on motivation-cognition theory, we focused on the two internal driving dimensions of self-orientation and task-orientation, as well as the three external motivational dimensions induced by stimulus, group structure, and professionalism. By introducing the relevant principles of the SIR transmission model, we constructed a targeted collaboration decision model for the large groups (the TC-LGDM model). [Results] The three realistic factors, i.e., the probability of secondary events, the influence of individual decision makings, and the professional competence of members, are closely related to the final formation and efficacy of large group targeted collaborative decision-making. [Limitations] The decision-making states within the group are limited,and the additional information value formed by the decision-makers in the process of receiving information needs to be explored more deeply. [Conclusions] This study provides valuable references for decision-makers to obtain situational manifestation and trend prediction capabilities. It is also an inevitable choice to enhance the sustainable development and decision-making of government in responding to public crisis risk events.

Key wordsMajor Emergencies      Target Collaboration      Group Emergency Decision      System Simulation      Motivational Cognitive Theory     
Received: 06 June 2022      Published: 13 April 2023
ZTFLH:  G203  
Fund:National Social Science Fund of China(20&ZD125);National Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province(20210101480JC);Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research Innovation Team on “Chinese Modernization Road” and “New Form of Human Civilization” of Jilin University(2022CXTD20)
Corresponding Authors: Ma Jie,ORCID:0000-0002-1471-2143,E-mail:m-1j-1@163.com。   

Cite this article:

Hao Zhiyuan, Ma Jie, Sun Wenjing. Simulation Research of Targeted Collaborative Decision-Making Model for Large Groups in Major Emergencies. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2023, 7(3): 80-96.

URL:

https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/10.11925/infotech.2096-3467.2022.0578     OR     https://manu44.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_infotech_wk3/EN/Y2023/V7/I3/80

The Conceptual Connotation Interpretation of Targeted Collaborative Decision-making Model for Large Groups
目标定向 决策状态 动机归类 现实因素 来源文献
自我定向 从众群体
犹豫群体
自我群体
外部刺激诱发动机
群体结构诱发动机
业务素养诱发动机
个体决策影响
群体人员构成
外界次生事件
自我中心主义
[17,19]
[21]
[24-25]
任务定向 研判群体
共识群体
外部刺激诱发动机
群体结构诱发动机
业务素养诱发动机
科学知识水平
个体综合素养
领域经验程度
个体风险偏好
[21]
[20,22 -23]
The Induced Motivation Classification of Decision Groups Driven by the Goal Orientation
The TC-LGDM Model Based on Motivational Cognitive Theory
参数及变量名称 表示符号 参数及变量含义解释
感知从众转化率 a1 表示一个个体由感知群体状态向从众群体状态转化的可能性
感知研判转化率 a2 表示一个个体由感知群体状态向研判群体状态转化的可能性
感知共识转化率 a3 表示一个个体由感知群体状态向共识群体状态转化的可能性
感知自我转化率 a4 表示一个个体由感知群体状态向自我群体状态转化的可能性
感知犹豫转化率 a5 表示一个个体由感知群体状态向犹豫群体状态转化的可能性
从众犹豫转化率 b1 表示一个个体由从众群体状态向犹豫群体状态转化的可能性
从众研判转化率 b2 表示一个个体由从众群体状态向研判群体状态转化的可能性
从众共识转化率 b3 表示一个个体由从众群体状态向共识群体状态转化的可能性
犹豫从众转化率 c1 表示一个个体由犹豫群体状态向从众群体状态转化的可能性
犹豫研判转化率 c2 表示一个个体由犹豫群体状态向研判群体状态转化的可能性
犹豫共识转化率 c3 表示一个个体由犹豫群体状态向共识群体状态转化的可能性
研判犹豫转化率 d1 表示一个个体由研判群体状态向犹豫群体状态转化的可能性
研判自我转化率 d2 表示一个个体由研判群体状态向自我群体状态转化的可能性
研判共识转化率 d3 表示一个个体由研判群体状态向共识群体状态转化的可能性
自我共识转化率 e1 表示一个个体由自我群体状态向共识群体状态转化的可能性
基础引导人数 num 表示任意状态中的个体能够影响到的人数(本文设左右近邻为受影响者)
知识水平系数 k 表示个体掌握的科学知识水平、专业经验程度等衡量业务素养的指标
个体认可度 r 表示个体基于人际关系、社会地位等因素对决策信息传播者的认可度
次生事件概率 p 表示该应急事件而引发的其他事件发生概率(如外界因素刺激等)
从众导向人数 b_num 表示从众群体中的每个个体能够影响到的人数
犹豫导向人数 c_num 表示犹豫群体中的每个个体能够影响到的人数
研判导向人数 d_num 表示研判群体中的每个个体能够影响到的人数
感知群体(t at 表示在时刻t感知群体里的个体数量
从众群体(t bt 表示在时刻t从众群体里的个体数量
犹豫群体(t ct 表示在时刻t犹豫群体里的个体数量
研判群体(t dt 表示在时刻t研判群体里的个体数量
自我群体(t et 表示在时刻t自我群体里的个体数量
共识群体(t gt 表示在时刻t共识群体里的个体数量
The Parameters and Variables of TC-LGDM
参数及变量名称 表示符号 参数及变量取值
感知从众转化率 a1 0.250
感知研判转化率 a2 0.110
感知共识转化率 a3 0.030
感知自我转化率 a4 0.008
感知犹豫转化率 a5 0.250
从众犹豫转化率 b1 0.030
从众研判转化率 b2 0.030
从众共识转化率 b3 0.215
犹豫从众转化率 c1 0.250
犹豫研判转化率 c2 0.003
犹豫共识转化率 c3 0.045
研判犹豫转化率 d1 0.020
研判自我转化率 d2 0.010
研判共识转化率 d3 0.001
自我共识转化率 e1 0.060
基础引导人数 num 2.000
知识水平系数 k 0.090
个体认可度 r 0.250
次生事件概率 p 0.100
群体总数 S_P 20.000
The Parameters Values of TC-LGDM
The TC-LGDM System Dynamics Model Created by the AnyLogic
Simulation Experiment Results of Each Decision State in the TC-LGDM System Dynamics Model
The Change of the Number of Hesitant Groups Influenced by the Parameters
The Change of the Number of Consensus Groups Influenced by the Parameters
The Change of the Number of Conformity Groups Influenced by the Parameters
The Change of the Number of Consensus Groups Influenced by the Parameters
The Change of the Number of Judgement Groups Influenced by the Parameters
The Change of the Number of Consensus Groups Influenced by the Parameters
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