|
|
Detecting Rumor Dissemination and Sources with SIDR Model |
Chen Yixin,Chen Xinyue,Liu Yi,Wang Hanzhen,Lai Yongqing,Xu Yang() |
Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
|
|
Abstract [Objective] This paper explores the characteristics of rumor sources and dissemination patterns, aiming to reduce their negative effects. [Methods] First, we added “fact checkers” to the traditional infectious disease model, and set changing rules for node status based on the characteristics of rumor dissemination. Then, we constructed a SIDR model with the node interaction in social networks. Third, we proposed an algorithm based on SIDR model to detect rumor sources. Finally, we optimized the proposed model with the Beam search algorithm. [Results] We examined the new model with real-world cases and found it accurately simulated the propagation of rumors. Identifying rumor sources could constrain their spread. The accuracy of our algorithm was up to 83% at the early stage.[Limitations] This paper does not consider the dynamic changes of social networks, and more representative cases should be included. [Conclusions] The proposed model could help us identify rumor sources and predict their development.
|
Received: 21 July 2020
Published: 05 February 2021
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
Xu Yang
E-mail: yang.xu@pku.edu.cn
|
[1] |
姜胜洪 . 网络谣言的形成、传导与舆情引导机制, 重庆社会科学, 2012(6):12-20.
|
[1] |
( Jiang Shenghong. The Formation , Transmission of Internet Rumors and Guidance Mechanism of the Public Opinion, Chongqing Social Sciences, 2012(6):12-20.)
|
[2] |
中国互联网联合辟谣平台. 新冠肺炎疫情防控辟谣专区[EB/OL]. [ 2020- 06- 06]. [EB/OL].[ 2020-06-06].
|
[3] |
左玮娜 . 网络谣言传播研究[D]. 北京:中国社会科学院研究生院, 2006.
|
[3] |
( Zuo Weina . Research on Online Rumor Propagation[D]. Beijing: Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2006.)
|
[4] |
张芳, 司光亚, 罗批 . 谣言传播模型研究综述[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2009,6(4):1-11.
|
[4] |
( Zhang Fang, Si Guangya, Luo Pi . A Survey for Rumor Propagation Models[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2009,6(4):1-11.)
|
[5] |
苏国强, 兰月新 . 基于SIR的突发事件网络谣言扩散模型研究[J]. 武警学院学报, 2013,29(4):90-92.
|
[5] |
( Su Guoqiang, Lan Yuexin . A Research of Emergency Network Rumor Propagation Model Based on SIR[J]. Journal of the Armed Police Academy, 2013,29(4):90-92.)
|
[6] |
孟繁荣 . 社交网络的谣言传播模型研究[D]. 南京: 南京邮电大学, 2013.
|
[6] |
( Meng Fanrong . Rumor Spreading Model of Social Network[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2013.)
|
[7] |
Zanette D H . Dynamics of Rumor Propagation on Small-World Networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2002,65(4):041908.
|
[8] |
Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F . Dynamics of Rumor Spreading in Complex Networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2004,69:066130.
|
[9] |
Rasnow R L . Rumor as Communication: A Contextualist Approach[J]. Journal of Communication, 1988,38(1):12-28.
|
[10] |
Allport G W, Leo P . An Analysis of Rumor[J]. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1947,10(4):501-507.
|
[11] |
胡钰 . 大众传播效果[M]. 北京: 新华出版社, 2000.
|
[11] |
( Hu Yu. The Effect of Mass Communication[M]. Beijing: Xinhua Publishing House, 2000.)
|
[12] |
巢乃鹏, 黄娴 . 网络传播中的“谣言”现象研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2004, 27(6): 586-589, 575.( Chao Naipeng, Huang Xian. Research on “Rumors” Phenomenon in Internet Communication, Information Studies: Theory & Application, 2004,27(6):586-589, 575.)
|
[13] |
Gist P N P . Rumor and Public Opinion[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1951,57(2):159-167.
|
[14] |
Katz E, Shibutani T . Improvised News: A Sociological Study of Rumor[J]. American Sociological Review, 1969,34(5):781.
|
[15] |
Fisher D R . Rumoring Theory and the Internet: A Framework for Analyzing the Grass Roots[J]. Social Science Computer Review, 1998,16(2):158-168.
doi: 10.1177/089443939801600204
|
[16] |
Sunstein C R . On Rumors: How Falsehoods Spread, Why We Believe Them, and What Can Be Done[M]. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2009.
|
[17] |
刘建明 . 舆论传播[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2001.
|
[17] |
( Liu Jianming. Public Opinion Transmission [M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2001.)
|
[18] |
王国华, 方付建, 陈强 . 网络谣言传导: 过程、动因与根源——以地震谣言为例[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2011,13(2):112-116.
|
[18] |
( Wang Guohua, Fang Fujian, Chen Qiang . The Spreading of Network Rumors: Procedure, Motivation and Causes——A Case Study of Earthquake Rumors[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2011,13(2):112-116.)
|
[19] |
曹英 . 群体性事件中的信息传播流程、节点与心理接受机制[J]. 河南社会科学, 2009,17(1): 139-144, 225.( Cao Ying. The Transmitting Process, Node and Psychological Acceptance Mechanism of the Information of Grouping Incidents , Henan Social Sciences, 2009,17(1):139-144, 225.)
|
[20] |
周晓虹 . 传播的畸变——对“SARS”传言的一种社会心理学分析, 社会学研究, 2003(6):43-54.
|
[20] |
( Zhou Xiaohong . The Mis-Transmission: A Social Psychological Analysis of the Prevalence of Rumors and Gossip about SARS, Sociological Studies, 2003(6):43-54.)
|
[21] |
孙燕 . 谣言风暴: 灾难事件后的网络舆论危机现象研究[J]. 新闻与传播研究, 2011, 18(5): 52-62, 111.
|
[21] |
( Sun Yan . Rumor Storm: Research on the Crisis of Network Opinion After Disasters, Journalism & Communication, 2011,18(5):52-62, 111.)
|
[22] |
孙嘉卿, 金盛华, 曹慎慎 . 灾难后谣言传播心理的定性分析——以“5·12汶川地震”谣言为例[J]. 心理科学进展, 2009,17(3):602-609.
|
[22] |
( Sun Jiaqing, Jin Shenghua, Cao Shenshen . A Qualitative Psychological Analysis of the Rumors Appeared after A Disaster: The Evidence from the Rumors Appeared After “5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake”[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2009,17(3):602-609.)
|
[23] |
Kermack W O, McKendrick A G. A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics[J]. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 1927,115(772):700-721.
|
[24] |
Daley D J, Kendall D G . Epidemics and Rumours[J]. Nature, 1964,204(4963):1118.
doi: 10.1038/2041118a0
|
[25] |
Maki D P, Thompson M . Mathematical Models and Applications: With Emphasis on the Social, Life, and Management Sciences[M]. Pearson College Div, 1973.
|
[26] |
Li W, Gu J, Cai X . Message Spreading and Forget-Remember Mechanism on a Scale-Free Network[J]. Chinese Physics Letters, 2008,25(6):2303-2306.
|
[27] |
Afassinou K . Analysis of the Impact of Education Rate on the Rumor Spreading Mechanism[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014,414:43-52.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.041
|
[28] |
Wang H, Li Y P, Feng Z N , et al. ReTweeting Analysis and Prediction in Microblogs: An Epidemic Inspired Approach[J]. China Communications, 2013,10(3):13-24.
|
[29] |
Xiong F, Liu Y, Zhang Z J , et al. An Information Diffusion Model Based on Retweeting Mechanism for Online Social Media[J]. Physics Letters A, 2012,376(30-31):2103-2108.
doi: 10.1016/j.physleta.2012.05.021
|
[30] |
顾亦然, 夏玲玲 . 在线社交网络中谣言的传播与抑制[J]. 物理学报, 2012,61(23):550-556.
|
[30] |
( Gu Yiran, Xia Lingling . The Spread and Suppression of Rumors in Online Social Networks[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012,61(23):550-556.)
|
[31] |
Zhao L J, Wang J J, Chen Y C , et al. SIHR Rumor Spreading Model in Social Networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2012,391(7):2444-2453.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.008
|
[32] |
Zhang N, Huang H, Su B N , et al. Dynamic 8-State ICSAR Rumor Propagation Model Considering Official Rumor Refutation[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014,415:333-346.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.023
|
[33] |
Wang J J, Zhao L J, Huang R B . SIRaRu Rumor Spreading Model in Complex Networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014,398:43-55.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.12.004
|
[34] |
Wang J J, Zhao L J, Huang R B . 2SI2R Rumor Spreading Model in Homogeneous Networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014,413:153-161.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.06.053
|
[35] |
昝永利 . 复杂网络中的反击谣言模型与多谣言同时传播动力学研究[D]. 济南: 山东大学, 2015.
|
[35] |
( Zan Yongli . Counter Rumor Models and Multi-rumors Spreading Dynamics on Complex Networks[D]. Jinan: Shandong University, 2015.)
|
[36] |
Zanette D H . Criticality of Rumor Propagation on Small-World Networks[OL]. arXiv Preprint, arXiv: 0109049.
|
[37] |
Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F . Dynamics of Rumor Spreading in Complex Networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2004,69(6):066130.
doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066130
|
[38] |
汪小帆, 李翔, 陈关荣 . 复杂网络理论及其应用[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006.
|
[38] |
( Wang Xiaofan, Li Xiang, Chen Guanrong. Theory and Application of Complex Network[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2006.)
|
[39] |
潘灶烽, 汪小帆, 李翔 . 可变聚类系数无标度网络上的谣言传播仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2006,18(8):2346-2348.
|
[39] |
( Pan Zaofeng, Wang Xiaofan, Li Xiang . Simulation Investigation on Rumor Spreading on Scale-Free Network with Tunable Clustering[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2006,18(8):2346-2348.)
|
[40] |
Isham V, Harden S, Nekovee M . Stochastic Epidemics and Rumours on Finite Random Networks[J]. Physica A, 2010,389(3):561-576.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.10.001
|
[41] |
孙睿, 罗万伯 . 具有非一致传播率的无标度网络谣言传播模型[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2014,11(3):6-11.
|
[41] |
( Sun Rui, Luo Wanbo . Rumour Propagation Model for Scale-Free Network with Non-Uniform Propagation Rates[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2014,11(3):6-11.)
|
[42] |
王筱莉, 赵来军, 谢婉林 . 无标度网络中遗忘率变化的谣言传播模型研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015,35(2):458-465.
|
[42] |
( Wang Xiaoli, Zhao Laijun, Xie Wanlin . Rumor Spreading Model with Variable Forgetting Rate in Scale-Free Network[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2015,35(2):458-465.)
|
[43] |
Wang Z X, Dong W X, Zhang W Y, et al. Rumor Source Detection with Multiple Observations: Fundamental Limits and Algorithms[C]// Proceedings of the 2014 ACM International Conference on Measurement and Modeling of Computer Systems. 2014: 1-13.
|
[44] |
Agaskar A, Lu Y M . A Fast Monte Carlo Algorithm for Source Localization on Graphs[C]//Proceedings of SPIE, Volume 8858. 2013. DOI: 10.1117/12.2023039.
|
[45] |
Alexandru R, Dragotti P L. Rumour Source Detection in Social Networks Using Partial Observations[C]// Proceedings of 2018 IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing (GlobalSIP). 2018: 730-734.
|
[46] |
Xu W, Chen H. Scalable Rumor Source Detection Under Independent Cascade Model in Online Social Networks[C]// Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Mobile Ad-Hoc and Sensor Networks (MSN). 2015: 236-242.
|
[47] |
Kumar A, Borkar V S, Karamchandani N . Temporally Agnostic Rumor-Source Detection[J]. IEEE Transactions on Signal and Information Processing over Networks, 2017,3(2):316-329.
doi: 10.1109/TSIPN.2017.2668141
|
[48] |
Zhou Y S, Wu C J, Zhu Q Y , et al. Rumor Source Detection in Networks Based on the SEIR Model[J]. IEEE Access, 2019,7:45240-45258.
doi: 10.1109/Access.6287639
|
[49] |
Li M Y, Muldowney J S . Global Stability for the SEIR Model in Epidemiology[J]. Mathematical Biosciences, 1995,125(2):155-164.
doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(95)92756-5
pmid: 7881192
|
[50] |
刘于思, 徐煜 . 在线社会网络中的谣言与辟谣信息传播效果: 探讨网络结构因素与社会心理过程的影响[J]. 新闻与传播研究, 2016,23(11):51-69, 127.
|
[50] |
( Liu Yusi, Xu Yu,. Rumor and Rumor Denials in Online Social Networks: Exploring the Influence of Structural and Social Psychological Processes , Journalism & Communication, 2016,23(11):51-69, 127.)
|
[51] |
Gruhl D, Guha R, Liben-Nowell D, et al. Information Diffusion Through Blogspace[C]// Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on World Wide Web. 2004: 491-501.
|
[52] |
王雨嘉, 侯合银 . 小世界网络中基于一种改进模型的谣言传播研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2019,38(4):138-147, 167.
|
[52] |
( Wang Yujia, Hou Heyin. Study of an Improved Rumor-Propagation Model on Small World Networks , Journal of Intelligence, 2019,38(4):138-147, 167.)
|
[53] |
Zan Y L, Wu J L, Li P , et al. SICR Rumor Spreading Model in Complex Networks: Counterattack and Self-Resistance[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014,405:159-170.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.03.021
|
[54] |
魏静, 黄阳江豪, 林萍 , 等. 基于改进SIR模型的微博网络舆情传播研究[J]. 情报科学, 2019,37(6):16-22.
|
[54] |
( Wei Jing, Huang Yangjianghao, Lin Ping , et al. Public Opinion Transmission of Micro-blog Network Based on Improved SIR Network[J]. Information Science, 2019,37(6):16-22.)
|
[55] |
李鑫, 张军 . 基于系统动力学的SIRS信息传播模型研究[J]. 情报科学, 2017,35(11):17-22.
|
[55] |
( Li Xin, Zhang Jun . Research on SIRS Information Diffusion Model Based on System Dynamic[J]. Information Science, 2017,35(11):17-22.)
|
[56] |
王宏波 . 微信朋友圈信息传播:演化模型构建与仿真[J]. 现代情报, 2017,37(9):81-85.
|
[56] |
( Wang Hongbo . WeChat Moments Information Dissemination: Evolution Model Building and Simulation[J]. Journal of Modern Information, 2017,37(9):81-85.)
|
[57] |
吴尤可, 瞿辉 . 基于社交网络的谣言追溯技术及对策研究[J]. 情报科学, 2017,35(6):125-129.
|
[57] |
( Wu Youke, Qu Hui . Research on Rumor Tracking Technology and Countermeasures Based on Social Networks[J]. Information Science, 2017,35(6):125-129.)
|
[58] |
Ow P S, Morton T E . Filtered Beam Search in Scheduling[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 1988,26(1):35-62.
doi: 10.1080/00207548808947840
|
[59] |
赖胜强 . 网络谣言对受众再传播行为的影响机理研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2014,33(5):153-156, 135.
|
[59] |
( Lai Shengqiang . Influencing Mechanism of the Online Rumors on Audiences’ Re-transmission Behavior, Journal of Intelligence, 2014,33(5):153-156, 135.)
|
[60] |
尹书华 . 基于复杂网络的微博用户关系网络特性研究[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2011,36(6):57-61.
|
[60] |
( Yin Shuhua . A Research of User Relations Properties Based on a Complex Network of Microblog[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2011,36(6):57-61.)
|
[61] |
雷宏振, 贾悦婷 . 基于复杂网络的在线社交网络特征与传播动力学分析, 统计与决策, 2015(2):114-117.
|
[61] |
( Lei Hongzhen, Jia Yueting . Analysis on the Characteristics and Propagation Dynamics of Online Social Networks Based on Complex Networks, Statistics & Decision, 2015(2):114-117.)
|
[62] |
Mislove A, Marcon M, Gummadi K P, et al. Measurement and Analysis of Online Social Networks[C]// Proceedings of the 7th ACM SIGCOMM Conference on Internet Measurement. 2007: 29-42.
|
[63] |
范纯龙, 宋会敏, 丁国辉 . 一种改进的SEIR网络谣言传播模型研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2017,36(3):86-91.
|
[63] |
( Fan Chunlong, Song Huimin, Ding Guohui . Research on an Improved SEIR Network Rumor Propagation Model[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2017,36(3):86-91.)
|
[64] |
朱恒民, 李青 . 面向话题衍生性的微博网络舆情传播模型研究, 现代图书情报技术, 2012(5):60-64.
|
[64] |
( Zhu Hengmin, Li Qing . Public Opinion Propagation Model with Topic Derivatives in the Micro-blog Network[J]. New Technology of Library and Information Service, 2012 ( 5):60-64.)
|
[65] |
王秀利, 朱建明 . 社会舆论方向影响下的微博商业言论传播模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012,20(S2):691-695.
|
[65] |
( Wang Xiuli, Zhu Jianming . The Propagation Model of Micro-blog Commercial Speech Under the Influence of Public Opinion[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012,20(S2):691-695.)
|
[66] |
Prettejohn B J, Berryman M J, McDonnell M D. Methods for Generating Complex Networks with Selected Structural Properties for Simulations: A Review and Tutorial for Neuroscientists[J]. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 2011,5:1-18.
doi: 10.3389/fncom.2011.00010
|
[67] |
Yang A Z, Huang X Y, Cai X M , et al. ILSR Rumor Spreading Model with Degree in Complex Network[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2019,531:121807.
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|